Just before Christmas is a popular release time for tentpoles, as studios try to make their film the one to see over the holidays. Two directors in particular are associated this weekend - James Cameron through Titanic and Avatar, and Peter Jackson through the Lord of the Rings trilogy, the King Kong remake, and now, The Hobbit.
This weekend is also a popular time for studios to release movies aimed at children, such as the infamous Chipmunk movies and Yogi Bear, as well as movies they want to push at the Oscars next year with a chance of gaining a wide audience, like Black Swan, The Fighter and Gangs of New York.
Once upon a time, the pre-Christmas weekend saw big romantic comedies like You've Got Mail and What Women Want, but that's not really the case these days. There are also plenty of less memorable movies released this weekend like How Do You Know? and Did You Hear About the Morgans? This column won't cover either of these categories.
Here are the tentpole releases for this weekend, going back to Titanic:
Movie
|
First Friday of Release
|
Previous Box Office
($M) |
Opening Weekend
(M) |
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Peter Jackson
|
||||||
Hobbit 2
|
13/12/2013
|
0.0
|
73.6
|
$18,869
|
2.36
|
3.11
|
Hobbit 1
|
14/12/2012
|
0.0
|
84.6
|
$20,919
|
2.28
|
3.12
|
Lord of the Rings 1
|
21/12/2001
|
0.0
|
47.2
|
$14,055
|
3.32
|
4.84
|
Lord of the Rings 2
|
20/12/2002
|
40.0
|
62.0
|
$17,120
|
3.23
|
3.93
|
Lord of the Rings 3
|
19/12/2003
|
51.5
|
72.6
|
$19,614
|
3.33
|
3.59
|
King Kong
|
16/12/2005
|
16.1
|
50.1
|
$14,050
|
3.46
|
3.52
|
James Cameron
|
||||||
Avatar
|
18/12/2009
|
0.0
|
77.0
|
$22,313
|
2.88
|
5.59
|
Titanic
|
19/12/1997
|
0.0
|
28.6
|
$10,710
|
3.31
|
6.91
|
Other Tentpoles
|
||||||
Madea 7 – Madea Christmas
|
13/12/2013
|
0.0
|
16.0
|
$7,296
|
2.78
|
3.14
|
Sherlock Holmes 2
|
16/12/2011
|
0.0
|
39.6
|
$10,704
|
2.71
|
3.96
|
Tron 2
|
17/12/2010
|
0.0
|
47.0
|
$13,627
|
2.69
|
3.15
|
I Am Legend
|
14/12/2007
|
0.0
|
77.2
|
$21,412
|
2.57
|
2.95
|
Eragon
|
15/12/2006
|
0.0
|
23.2
|
$7,695
|
2.66
|
2.88
|
All of the tentpoles have had solid internal multipliers, with the Peter Jackson movies having particularly high ones - though this is in part due to three of them having had a mid-week release, drawing front-loading away from Friday. It's also partly due to strong word-of-mouth - though King Kong, which had the highest IM also had the weakest word-of-mouth of the four films. Cameron's two releases also had strong IMs, while the other tentpoles achieved consistent IMs in the range of 2.5-2.7.
Looking beyond the adjust, all of the tentpoles released on this weekend have had strong legs over the Christmas period, and delisted above their adjust price - even the ones that were a disappointment, like Eragon. I Am Legend also had relatively weak legs for the weekend - zombies not being in the Christmas spirit, I guess. But the Peter Jackson movies all did well after the opening weekend, and the James Cameron movies did exceptionally well.
Let's look at the movies aimed at younger audiences:
Movie
|
First Friday of Release
|
Opening Weekend
($M) |
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Alvin
& the Chipmunks 3
|
16/12/2011
|
23.2
|
$6,244
|
3.47
|
4.80
|
Yogi
Bear
|
17/12/2010
|
16.4
|
$4,669
|
3.57
|
4.60
|
Tale of
Despereaux
|
19/12/2008
|
10.1
|
$3,255
|
2.86
|
4.71
|
Alvin
& the Chipmunks 1
|
14/12/2007
|
44.3
|
$12,750
|
3.33
|
3.98
|
Charlotte's
Web
|
15/12/2006
|
11.5
|
$3,213
|
3.34
|
5.84
|
Lemony
Snicket
|
17/12/2004
|
30.1
|
$8,304
|
2.90
|
3.51
|
Wild
Thornberries
|
20/12/2002
|
6.0
|
$1,997
|
3.72
|
5.85
|
Jimmy
Neutron
|
21/12/2001
|
13.8
|
$4,407
|
3.24
|
4.99
|
Emperor's
New Groove
|
15/12/2000
|
9.7
|
$3,452
|
4.22
|
6.45
|
Stuart
Little 1
|
17/12/1999
|
14.9
|
$5,165
|
4.03
|
6.41
|
Prince
of Egypt
|
18/12/1998
|
14.3
|
$4,600
|
3.47
|
5.22
|
All of these movies have very strong internal multipliers, as you would expect from movies that would get most of their audience on Saturday and Sunday, though they are weaker than they were a decade ago. These days, you're probably looking at an IM of 3.3-3.4.
All of them have also had especially strong legs over the holidays - the lowest was the forgettable Lemony Snicket movie, and that still had a 3.52 DM. Of the eleven movies on the list, four of them delisted at double their adjust price. Crazy. Be grateful HSX doesn't introduce a special Christmas-time multiplier.
Finally, here are the releases targeted at adult audiences that the studios pushed for Oscar season - some of them not-so-successfully.
Movie
|
First Friday of Release
|
Previous Box Office
($M) |
Opening Weekend
($M) |
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Fighter
|
17/12/2010
|
0.4
|
12.1
|
$4,848
|
3.08
|
4.73
|
Black
Swan
|
17/12/2010
|
7.4
|
8.4
|
$8,742
|
3.33
|
6.42
|
Seven
Pounds
|
19/12/2008
|
0.0
|
14.9
|
$5,385
|
2.86
|
4.49
|
Pursuit
of Happyness
|
15/12/2006
|
0.0
|
26.5
|
$9,306
|
2.96
|
4.67
|
Gangs of
New York
|
20/12/2002
|
0.0
|
9.5
|
$6,316
|
3.30
|
5.78
|
Again, all these movies had high IMs and very strong legs over the holidays, delisting well above their adjust price - even the poor performers like Seven Pounds.
So, there are some easy lessons for traders to take away for this weekend:
- tentpoles opening this weekend have historically had strong IMs if they are from Peter Jackson or James Cameron
- movies aimed at children opening this weekend have consistently high IMs
- all the movies above delisted above their adjust price, even if they were terrible
- some of those movies - especially the ones aimed at children, the Oscar-bait ones and the James Cameron ones - delisted way, way above their adjust price.
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