The Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend is the first holiday of the new year. It is a popular weekend for studios to release movies featuring a prominent African-American star, movies aimed at children and pre-Oscar expansions. None of these things are the case in 2012. As Martin Luther King Jr. Day falls on the third Monday in January, the holiday weekend can fall on either the second or the third weekend of the year.
This column will look at the movies that have been released on the four-day MLK weekend over the last fifteen years by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers. The four-day weekend with the adjust multiplier of 2.2 (or 3.0 for movies that were expanding to a wide release) was only introduced on HSX in 2008. Prior to this, the adjust was calculated by multiplying the three-day weekend figure by the usual adjust multiplier. Having a four day weekend adds, on average, about 20% to the three day figure.
Let's start with the action-oriented movies:
|
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
|
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
|
17/01/2014
|
|
18
|
$5,325
|
3.4
|
2.46
|
|
Last Stand
|
18/01/2014
|
|
7.2
|
$2,476
|
3.55
|
1.65
|
|
Contraband
|
13/01/2012
|
28.5
|
$9,960
|
3.30
|
2.18
|
|
|
Green Hornet
|
14/01/2011
|
40.0
|
$11,164
|
3.61
|
2.18
|
|
|
Book of Eli
|
15/01/2010
|
38.4
|
$12,355
|
3.29
|
2.13
|
|
|
Cloverfield
|
18/01/2008
|
46.1
|
$13,529
|
2.69
|
1.65
|
|
|
Elektra
|
14/01/2005
|
14.8
|
$4,617
|
3.32
|
1.61
|
|
|
Torque
|
16/01/2004
|
11.4
|
$4,646
|
3.40
|
1.79
|
|
|
Black Hawk Down
|
18/01/2002
|
1.8
|
33.6
|
$10,844
|
3.39
|
2.52
|
|
Supernova
|
14/01/2000
|
5.8
|
$2,534
|
3.23
|
2.30
|
The four movies from 2008 onward all had pretty similar IM's of around 3.3 and DM's in the 2.1 to 2.2 range, making them the most marginal of post-adjust shorts. The exception here is Cloverfield, which was hugely hyped before release and hugely front-loaded. That's a terrible DM - it made more money in its first four days of release than it did over the next three weeks.
While we're talking about front-loading, here is what we have for MLK weekend horror releases:
|
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend
($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
|
Devil's Due
|
17/01/2014
|
9.1
|
$3,595
|
2.6
|
1.68
|
|
Mama
|
18/01/2013
|
32.1
|
$12,145
|
3.18
|
1.99
|
|
My Bloody Valentine
|
16/01/2009
|
24.1
|
$9,512
|
2.93
|
2
|
So it's not a big weekend for horror releases. But as we'd expect, there's a low internal multiplier - 3 is not great for a four day weekend - and a delist multiplier of only twice the weekend's box office.
Let's see the releases aimed at children:
|
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend
($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
|
Nut Job
|
17/01/2014
|
25.7
|
$7,499
|
5.3
|
2.14
|
|
Beauty and the Beast 3D
|
13/01/2012
|
22.2
|
$8,462
|
3.96
|
2.02
|
|
Spy Next Door
|
15/01/2010
|
12.9
|
$4,404
|
5.34
|
1.78
|
|
Hotel for Dogs
|
16/01/2009
|
22.9
|
$6,990
|
5.27
|
2.41
|
|
Hoodwinked 1
|
13/01/2006
|
16.9
|
$7,051
|
6.33
|
2.61
|
|
Racing Stripes
|
14/01/2005
|
18.9
|
$5,922
|
5.89
|
2.14
|
|
Snow Dogs
|
18/01/2002
|
23.7
|
$10,299
|
5.56
|
2.53
|
Again, this is a mixed bag. There are animated movies (Hoodwinked, Beauty and the Beast 3D), live action movies (Spy Next Door, Hotel for Dogs, Snow Dogs) and movies that are in between (Racing Stripes). They all have much stronger IMs than the movies we've seen so far, with all of them except Beauty and the Beast 3D (which audiences had seen before in 2D) getting above 5. They also have much stronger Mondays. For other genres, the Monday is about 20% of the Friday-to-Sunday take. For movies aimed at children, it's more like 30% to 35%. Some childrens movies are post-adjust longs, others are post-adjust shorts, depending on how well they connected with their audience.
Now let's see the releases broadly aimed at African-American audiences. The musical dramas:
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Joyful
Noise
|
13/01/2012
|
13.8
|
$5,047
|
4.18
|
2.10
|
Notorious
|
16/01/2009
|
23.4
|
$14,290
|
2.82
|
1.55
|
Stomp the Yard
|
12/01/2007
|
25.9
|
$12,612
|
3.59
|
2.16
|
Save the
Last Dance
|
12/01/2001
|
27.5
|
$12,344
|
3.66
|
2.49
|
And the sports dramas:
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Glory
Road
|
13/01/2006
|
16.9
|
$7,618
|
3.86
|
2.29
|
Coach
Carter
|
14/01/2005
|
29.2
|
$11,556
|
3.69
|
2.03
|
Varsity
Blues
|
15/01/1999
|
17.0
|
$8,021
|
3.27
|
2.60
|
Back in the day there were also comedies. Not so much lately.
|
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Previous Box Office
($M)
|
Opening Weekend
($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
|
Ride Along
|
17/01/2014
|
0
|
48.6
|
$18,260
|
3.4
|
2.17
|
|
Double Take
|
12/01/2001
|
0
|
11.7
|
$7,196
|
3.91
|
2.23
|
|
Friday 2 - Next Friday
|
14/01/2000
|
4.4
|
16.9
|
$15,338
|
3.89
|
2.43
|
Obviously I've taken some liberties sorting these into broad categories. The people who saw the Notorious B.I.G. biopic in theatres are probably not the same ones who went to see Joyful Noise featuring Dolly Parton. Movies about rural Texas high school football and Oakland high school basketball probably don't share the same audience. And none of them are aimed solely at African-American audiences - for example, such as Glory Road and Save the Last Dance have white protagonists, and I've really only included Varsity Blues because it fits better with the sports movies than anywhere else.
Stomp the Yard and Save the Last Dance had pretty solid IMs of around 3.6, and Joyful Noise - which is aimed at the sort of adults who don't go out on Friday nights - had even even stronger one. Notorious, which had a motivated fan-base, was relatively front-loaded.
For the sports movies, Glory Road and Coach Carter both had pretty strong IMs. Glory Road also delisted around what it would have adjusted to if released today while Coach Carter did less well here. Varsity Blues had a lower multiplier, but obviously had better word of mouth due its higher delist multiplier.
Let's look at the comedies released over this weekend. First, the ones aimed more at female audiences:
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
27
Dresses
|
18/01/2008
|
27.4
|
$8,977
|
3.53
|
2.37
|
Mad
Money
|
18/01/2008
|
7.7
|
$3,132
|
3.29
|
2.56
|
Last
Holiday
|
13/01/2006
|
15.5
|
$6,169
|
4.19
|
2.34
|
Along
Came Polly
|
16/01/2004
|
32.5
|
$10,875
|
3.66
|
2.31
|
A Guy
Thing
|
17/01/2003
|
8.0
|
$3,183
|
3.25
|
1.89
|
And the ones targeted at males:
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Dilemma
|
14/01/2011
|
20.5
|
$6,980
|
3.32
|
2.22
|
Paul
Blart: Mall Cop
|
16/01/2009
|
39.2
|
$12,479
|
4.01
|
2.47
|
Kangaroo
Jack
|
17/01/2003
|
21.9
|
$7,770
|
5.88
|
2.42
|
National
Security
|
17/01/2003
|
16.8
|
$6,161
|
3.75
|
2.06
|
Continuing the broad theme of this column, these movies don't have much in common beyond broad genre and release date. Mad Money is a heist comedy, Along Came Polly is a romantic comedy, and 27 Dresses is a romantic "comedy". Dilemma was marketed as a dramedy, while Kangaroo Jack features a rapping kangaroo and Paul Blart: Mall Cop is Paul Blart: Mall Cop.
There's a bit of variation among the IMs, though the lowest was a still respectable 3.2. An IM of 3.5 to 3.6 seems to the norm for romantic comedies. Kangaroo Jack and Paul Blart: Mall Cop, both being safe enough to see with your kids, had IMs above 4. Also, several of the movies delisted at above what they would have adjusted to today - even if they were terrible movies. So be careful with the automatic post-adjust short.
Finally, here's the list of movies that expanded over the MLK weekend in the hopes of getting a bigger audience over the awards season:
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Iron
Lady
|
13/01/2012
|
0.6
|
5.4
|
$6,749
|
3.46
|
3.71
|
Last
Chance Harvey
|
16/01/2009
|
0.6
|
4.3
|
$4,080
|
3.42
|
2.84
|
Lovely
Bones
|
16/01/2009
|
0.5
|
17.0
|
$6,635
|
2.97
|
2.41
|
Defiance
|
16/01/2009
|
0.3
|
8.9
|
$4,981
|
3.29
|
2.79
|
Brokeback
Mountain
|
13/01/2006
|
25.0
|
5.8
|
$8,499
|
3.68
|
6.04
|
Phantom
of the Opera
|
14/01/2005
|
22.9
|
4.6
|
$5,100
|
4.64
|
4.31
|
In Good
Company
|
14/01/2005
|
0.5
|
14.3
|
$9,125
|
3.17
|
2.82
|
Black Hawk
Down
|
18/01/2002
|
1.8
|
33.6
|
$10,844
|
3.39
|
2.52
|
Crouching
Tiger, Hidden Dragon
|
12/01/2001
|
20.0
|
8.6
|
$12,389
|
3.71
|
3.81
|
Finding
Forrester
|
12/01/2001
|
9.4
|
9.9
|
$4,967
|
3.66
|
3.20
|
Thirteen
Days
|
12/01/2001
|
0.6
|
9.8
|
$4,815
|
3.61
|
2.84
|
Girl
Interrupted
|
14/01/2000
|
0.7
|
8.2
|
$4,337
|
3.17
|
2.93
|
Hurricane
|
14/01/2000
|
4.1
|
9.0
|
$6,200
|
3.60
|
3.72
|
Thin Red
Line
|
15/01/1999
|
3.1
|
9.3
|
$6,111
|
3.43
|
2.93
|
Many of these delisted at what they would have adjusted to today. The movies with the highest delist multipliers - like Brokeback Mountain, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, The Hurricane and the Iron Lady were the ones that received the most awards attention and/or had built strong word of mouth going into the weekend. Also with a high delist multiplier was Phantom of the Opera, which continued to expand through February. Lower delist multipliers were reported by the action-oriented Black Hawk Down and other movies that received less awards recognition (Lovely Bones, In Good Company, Defiance, etc).
So, some things to take away about the MLK weekend:
- it is not a weekend that gets consistent genre releases (like, say, Valentine's Day or the first weekend in May), and comparing movies is like apples and oranges
- traders are probably better off comparing movies that are alike in other ways. When you're making these comparisons, the Monday adds about 20% of box office to the Friday-to-Sunday figure, or 30-35% if it is a children's movie
- most movies have an IM of 3.25, and usually higher. Only the most front-loaded releases fail to reach this mark
- children's movies generally have an IM of above 5. Don't get suckered into shorting just because of a poor Friday
- many movies released on this weekend have enough legs to make a post-adjust short questionable.
No comments:
Post a Comment