Tuesday 15 January 2013

What can I expect from the MLK weekend?

Note: this article was written in 2012. The tables have been updated to include more recent box office information, but these changes have not been reflected in the text.

The Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend is the first holiday of the new year.  It is a popular weekend for studios to release movies featuring a prominent African-American star, movies aimed at children and pre-Oscar expansions.  None of these things are the case in 2012.  As Martin Luther King Jr. Day falls on the third Monday in January, the holiday weekend can fall on either the second or the third weekend of the year.

This column will look at the movies that have been released on the four-day MLK weekend over the last fifteen years by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers.  The four-day weekend with the adjust multiplier of 2.2 (or 3.0 for movies that were expanding to a wide release) was only introduced on HSX in 2008.  Prior to this, the adjust was calculated by multiplying the three-day weekend figure by the usual adjust multiplier.  Having a four day weekend adds, on average, about 20% to the three day figure.

Let's start with the action-oriented movies:

Movie
First Wide Friday
Previous Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
17/01/2014

18
$5,325
3.4
2.46
Last Stand
18/01/2014

7.2
$2,476
3.55
1.65
Contraband
13/01/2012
28.5
$9,960
3.30
2.18
Green Hornet
14/01/2011
40.0
$11,164
3.61
2.18
Book of Eli
15/01/2010
38.4
$12,355
3.29
2.13
Cloverfield
18/01/2008
46.1
$13,529
2.69
1.65
Elektra
14/01/2005
14.8
$4,617
3.32
1.61
Torque
16/01/2004
11.4
$4,646
3.40
1.79
Black Hawk Down
18/01/2002
1.8
33.6
$10,844
3.39
2.52
Supernova
14/01/2000
5.8
$2,534
3.23
2.30

This is obviously a very mixed bag of action movies, without much in common except their MLK weekend release.  Green Hornet was a superhero action comedy, while Book of Eli was a post-apocalyptic action drama. Contraband was a pretty typical Mark Wahlberg vehicle, while Cloverfield was a monster movie with no recogniseable stars.  Black Hawk Down was a war movie with awards buzz, which is discussed more later in the column.  The other three were all sizeable flops and are really only included  in the table for completeness.

The four movies from 2008 onward all had pretty similar IM's of around 3.3 and DM's in the 2.1 to 2.2 range, making them the most marginal of post-adjust shorts.    The exception here is Cloverfield, which was hugely hyped before release and hugely front-loaded.  That's a terrible DM - it made more money in its first four days of release than it did over the next three weeks.

While we're talking about front-loading, here is what we have for MLK weekend horror releases:

Movie
First Wide Friday
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Devil's Due
17/01/2014
9.1
$3,595
2.6
1.68
Mama
18/01/2013
32.1
$12,145
3.18
1.99
My Bloody Valentine
16/01/2009
24.1
$9,512
2.93
2

So it's not a big weekend for horror releases.  But as we'd expect, there's a low internal multiplier - 3 is not great for a four day weekend - and a delist multiplier of only twice the weekend's box office.

Let's see the releases aimed at children:


Movie
First Wide Friday
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Nut Job
17/01/2014
25.7
$7,499
5.3
2.14
Beauty and the Beast 3D
13/01/2012
22.2
$8,462
3.96
2.02
Spy Next Door
15/01/2010
12.9
$4,404
5.34
1.78
Hotel for Dogs
16/01/2009
22.9
$6,990
5.27
2.41
Hoodwinked 1
13/01/2006
16.9
$7,051
6.33
2.61
Racing Stripes
14/01/2005
18.9
$5,922
5.89
2.14
Snow Dogs
18/01/2002
23.7
$10,299
5.56
2.53

Again, this is a mixed bag.  There are animated movies (Hoodwinked, Beauty and the Beast 3D), live action movies (Spy Next Door, Hotel for Dogs, Snow Dogs) and movies that are in between (Racing Stripes).  They all have much stronger IMs than the movies we've seen so far, with all of them except Beauty and the Beast 3D (which audiences had seen before in 2D) getting above 5.  They also have much stronger Mondays.  For other genres, the Monday is about 20% of the Friday-to-Sunday take.  For movies aimed at children, it's more like 30% to 35%.  Some childrens movies are post-adjust longs, others are post-adjust shorts, depending on how well they connected with their audience.

Now let's see the releases broadly aimed at African-American audiences.  The musical dramas:

Movie
First Wide Friday
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Joyful Noise
13/01/2012
13.8
$5,047
4.18
2.10
Notorious
16/01/2009
23.4
$14,290
2.82
1.55
Stomp the Yard
12/01/2007
25.9
$12,612
3.59
2.16
Save the Last Dance
12/01/2001
27.5
$12,344
3.66
2.49

And the sports dramas:

Movie
First Wide Friday
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Glory Road
13/01/2006
16.9
$7,618
3.86
2.29
Coach Carter
14/01/2005
29.2
$11,556
3.69
2.03
Varsity Blues
15/01/1999
17.0
$8,021
3.27
2.60

Back in the day there were also comedies.  Not so much lately.

Movie
First Wide Friday
Previous Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Ride Along
17/01/2014
0
48.6
$18,260
3.4
2.17
Double Take
12/01/2001
0
11.7
$7,196
3.91
2.23
Friday 2 - Next Friday
14/01/2000
4.4
16.9
$15,338
3.89
2.43

Obviously I've taken some liberties sorting these into broad categories.  The people who saw the Notorious B.I.G. biopic in theatres are probably not the same ones who went to see Joyful Noise featuring Dolly Parton.  Movies about rural Texas high school football and Oakland high school basketball probably don't share the same audience.  And none of them are aimed solely at African-American audiences - for example, such as Glory Road and Save the Last Dance have white protagonists, and I've really only included Varsity Blues because it fits better with the sports movies than anywhere else.

Stomp the Yard and Save the Last Dance had pretty solid IMs of around 3.6, and Joyful Noise - which is aimed at the sort of adults who don't go out on Friday nights - had even even stronger one.  Notorious, which had a motivated fan-base, was relatively front-loaded.

For the sports movies, Glory Road and Coach Carter both had pretty strong IMs.  Glory Road also delisted around what it would have adjusted to if released today while Coach Carter did less well here.  Varsity Blues had a lower multiplier, but obviously had better word of mouth due its higher delist multiplier.

Let's look at the comedies released over this weekend.  First, the ones aimed more at female audiences:

Movie
First Wide Friday
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
27 Dresses
18/01/2008
27.4
$8,977
3.53
2.37
Mad Money
18/01/2008
7.7
$3,132
3.29
2.56
Last Holiday
13/01/2006
15.5
$6,169
4.19
2.34
Along Came Polly
16/01/2004
32.5
$10,875
3.66
2.31
A Guy Thing
17/01/2003
8.0
$3,183
3.25
1.89

And the ones targeted at males:

Movie
First Wide Friday
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Dilemma
14/01/2011
20.5
$6,980
3.32
2.22
Paul Blart: Mall Cop
16/01/2009
39.2
$12,479
4.01
2.47
Kangaroo Jack
17/01/2003
21.9
$7,770
5.88
2.42
National Security
17/01/2003
16.8
$6,161
3.75
2.06

Continuing the broad theme of this column, these movies don't have much in common beyond broad genre and release date. Mad Money is a heist comedy, Along Came Polly is a romantic comedy, and 27 Dresses is a romantic "comedy".  Dilemma was marketed as a dramedy, while Kangaroo Jack features a rapping kangaroo and Paul Blart: Mall Cop is Paul Blart: Mall Cop.

There's a bit of variation among the IMs, though the lowest was a still respectable 3.2. An IM of 3.5 to 3.6 seems to the norm for romantic comedies.  Kangaroo Jack and Paul Blart: Mall Cop, both being safe enough to see with your kids, had IMs above 4.  Also, several of the movies delisted at above what they would have adjusted to today - even if they were terrible movies.  So be careful with the automatic post-adjust short.

Finally, here's the list of movies that expanded over the MLK weekend in the hopes of getting a bigger audience over the awards season:

Movie
First Wide Friday
Previous Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Iron Lady
13/01/2012
0.6
5.4
$6,749
3.46
3.71
Last Chance Harvey
16/01/2009
0.6
4.3
$4,080
3.42
2.84
Lovely Bones
16/01/2009
0.5
17.0
$6,635
2.97
2.41
Defiance
16/01/2009
0.3
8.9
$4,981
3.29
2.79
Brokeback Mountain
13/01/2006
25.0
5.8
$8,499
3.68
6.04
Phantom of the Opera
14/01/2005
22.9
4.6
$5,100
4.64
4.31
In Good Company
14/01/2005
0.5
14.3
$9,125
3.17
2.82
Black Hawk Down
18/01/2002
1.8
33.6
$10,844
3.39
2.52
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
12/01/2001
20.0
8.6
$12,389
3.71
3.81
Finding Forrester
12/01/2001
9.4
9.9
$4,967
3.66
3.20
Thirteen Days
12/01/2001
0.6
9.8
$4,815
3.61
2.84
Girl Interrupted
14/01/2000
0.7
8.2
$4,337
3.17
2.93
Hurricane
14/01/2000
4.1
9.0
$6,200
3.60
3.72
Thin Red Line
15/01/1999
3.1
9.3
$6,111
3.43
2.93


Many of these delisted at what they would have adjusted to today.  The movies with the highest delist multipliers - like Brokeback Mountain, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, The Hurricane and the Iron Lady were the ones that received the most awards attention and/or had built strong word of mouth going into the weekend.  Also with a high delist multiplier was Phantom of the Opera, which continued to expand through February.  Lower delist multipliers were reported by the action-oriented Black Hawk Down and other movies that received less awards recognition (Lovely Bones, In Good Company, Defiance, etc).

So, some things to take away about the MLK weekend:
  •  it is not a weekend that gets consistent genre releases (like, say, Valentine's Day or the first weekend in May), and comparing movies is like apples and oranges
  • traders are probably better off comparing movies that are alike in other ways.  When you're making these comparisons, the Monday adds about 20% of box office to the Friday-to-Sunday figure, or 30-35% if it is a children's movie
  • most movies have an IM of 3.25, and usually higher.  Only the most front-loaded releases fail to reach this mark
  • children's movies generally have an IM of above 5.  Don't get suckered into shorting just because of a poor Friday
  • many movies released on this weekend have enough legs to make a post-adjust short questionable.

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