The President's Day weekend is the second four-day weekend of the HSX year. President's Day is celebrated on the third Monday in February. This puts it close to Valentine's Day, and it is a popular weekend to release romantic movies aimed at female audiences. But the President's Day weekend is also a weekend for studios to release mini-tentpoles - movies that can stand out in the box office doldrums of February, but probably wouldn't make much impression in summer.
This column will look at at the movies that have been released on the four-day President's Day weekend over the last fifteen years by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers. The four-day weekend with the adjust multiplier of 2.2 (or 3.0 for movies that were expanding to a wide release) was only introduced on HSX in 2008. Prior to this, the adjust was calculated by multiplying the three-day weekend figure by the usual adjust multiplier, but all of the data below is based on a four-day weekend. Having a four day weekend adds, on average, about 17% to the three day figure.
Let's begin with the romantic movies. There are a couple of straight romances like Message in a Bottle and Sweet November, but the list is dominated by romantic comedies like Valentine's Day, Music and Lyrics and Definitely Maybe. There are even two Adam Sandler films on the list.
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Previous Box Office
($M)
|
Opening Weekend
($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
About Last Night
|
14/02/2014
|
0.0
|
27.8
|
$12,356
|
2.16
|
1.67
|
Endless Love
|
14/02/2014
|
0.0
|
14.4
|
$4,978
|
1.94
|
1.60
|
Safe Haven
|
15/02/2013
|
8.8
|
24.5
|
$7,592
|
3.43
|
2.21
|
This Means War
|
17/02/2012
|
1.6
|
20.0
|
$6,274
|
3.58
|
2.26
|
Valentine's Day
|
12/02/2010
|
0.0
|
63.1
|
$17,227
|
4.34
|
1.68
|
Confessions of a Shopaholic
|
13/02/2009
|
0.0
|
17.8
|
$7,104
|
4.07
|
2.15
|
Definitely Maybe
|
15/02/2008
|
3.1
|
11.5
|
$5,205
|
3.83
|
2.29
|
Music and Lyrics
|
16/02/2007
|
5.5
|
15.9
|
$5,420
|
3.86
|
2.41
|
Daddy's Little Girls
|
16/02/2007
|
5.7
|
13.1
|
$6,189
|
4.41
|
1.87
|
50 First Dates
|
13/02/2004
|
0.0
|
45.1
|
$12,561
|
4.49
|
2.20
|
Sweet November
|
16/02/2001
|
0.0
|
11.0
|
$4,849
|
4.16
|
2.13
|
Down to Earth
|
16/02/2001
|
0.0
|
20.0
|
$7,944
|
4.00
|
2.55
|
Message in a Bottle
|
12/02/1999
|
0.0
|
18.8
|
$7,412
|
4.46
|
2.47
|
Wedding Singer
|
13/02/1998
|
0.0
|
25.3
|
$8,999
|
4.87
|
2.26
|
Most of these have strong IMs of 4 or higher - and where Valentine's Day happens to fall on President's Day weekend, as with Valentine's Day, 50 First Dates, Message In A Bottle and The Wedding Singer, the IM is particularly high. This Means War is the outlier with the lowest IM of the group, but that was more action-comedy than romantic comedy, and audiences strongly preferred the more straight romance of The Vow, which opened the week previously.
The DMs are all over the place, with a couple of movies that have delisted 5-10 per cent above their adjust price, and a couple of others - Valentine's Day and Daddy's Little Girls that delisted far below. Daddy's Little Girls was a Tyler Perry movie, so a low DM is to be expected, and Valentine's Day was obviously the movie to see on Valentine's Day, and not so much afterwards. The DMs seem to have gotten lower over time.
Other female-oriented movies released on this weekend are listed below, but they really don't have much in common with each other, so don't draw any conclusions.
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Previous Box Office
($M)
|
Opening Weekend
($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Winter’s Tale
|
14/02/2014
|
0.0
|
8.0
|
$2,701
|
2.19
|
1.56
|
Beautiful Creatures
|
15/02/2013
|
2.5
|
8.9
|
$3,032
|
3.89
|
1.84
|
Step Up 2
|
15/02/2008
|
6.6
|
22.1
|
$8,958
|
3.47
|
2.10
|
Crossroads
|
15/02/2002
|
0.0
|
17.0
|
$7,149
|
3.26
|
2.02
|
Hanging Up
|
18/02/2000
|
0.0
|
15.8
|
$6,038
|
4.27
|
2.16
|
We have seen more movies aimed at teenagers released on this weekend in recent years. Five years ago, the trend was for teenage dramas like Bridge to Terabithia and The Spiderwick Chronicles, but these days it's more about more action-y movies with teenage protagonists like Jumper, Percy Jackson and I Am Number Four.
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
I Am
Number Four
|
18/02/2011
|
0.0
|
22.8
|
$7,215
|
3.66
|
2.22
|
Percy
Jackson 1 - Lightning Thief
|
12/02/2010
|
0.0
|
38.7
|
$11,520
|
4.01
|
2.02
|
Jumper
|
15/02/2008
|
6.6
|
32.1
|
$9,434
|
3.68
|
2.05
|
Spiderwick
Chronicles
|
15/02/2008
|
2.4
|
24.7
|
$6,431
|
5.58
|
2.40
|
Bridge
to Terabithia
|
16/02/2007
|
0.0
|
28.5
|
$9,091
|
4.54
|
2.35
|
As you would expect, the teen dramas have much higher IMs and DMs than the more action-y movies.
Action movies with teenage protagonists aren't the only action movies released on President's Day weekend. We have three comic-book movies featuring B-list Marvel heroes, another comic book movie with an even lesser-known character, and a Vin Diesel movie from way back in history when Vin Diesel was "the Next Big Thing". I've also lumped in the horror remakes of The Wolfman and Friday the 13th into this list.
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Previous Box Office
($M)
|
Opening Weekend
($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Robocop
|
14/02/2014
|
4.9
|
25.1
|
$12,356
|
3.67
|
1.99
|
Die Hard 5 – A Good Day To Die Hard
|
15/02/2013
|
8.2
|
28.6
|
$8,061
|
3.98
|
1.92
|
Ghost Rider 2
|
17/02/2012
|
0.0
|
25.5
|
$8,025
|
3.67
|
1.89
|
Wolfman
|
12/02/2010
|
0.0
|
35.6
|
$11,035
|
3.68
|
1.70
|
Friday the 13th (Remake)
|
13/02/2009
|
0.0
|
43.6
|
$14,037
|
2.26
|
1.45
|
Ghost Rider 1
|
16/02/2007
|
0.0
|
52.0
|
$14,375
|
3.37
|
2.00
|
Constantine
|
18/02/2005
|
0.0
|
33.6
|
$11,186
|
3.09
|
1.98
|
Daredevil
|
14/02/2003
|
0.0
|
45.0
|
$12,974
|
2.94
|
2.03
|
Riddick 1 - Pitch Black
|
18/02/2000
|
0.0
|
13.5
|
$7,360
|
4.26
|
2.53
|
These movies did not perform well over the weekend, with weak IMs of 3.7 or less, or after the weekend, delisting at least 10 per cent below their adjust price. Daredevil and Constantine both scored poor IMs of around 3, and the Friday the 13th remake gets a Hall of Shame award with an IM that would be extremely low for a three-day weekend and a DM that says "this movie made twice as much on opening weekend than it totaled over the next three weeks".
The clear exception here is Pitch Black, which had a strong IM and DM that shows strong word-of-mouth and interest in something new. You don't get that every President's Day weekend.
Here are the thrillers that have been released over the weekend:
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Unknown
|
18/02/2011
|
25.5
|
$8,364
|
3.78
|
2.29
|
International
|
13/02/2009
|
10.7
|
$4,527
|
4.12
|
2.22
|
Breach
|
16/02/2007
|
12.3
|
$8,235
|
4.18
|
2.37
|
Freedomland
|
17/02/2006
|
6.7
|
$2,841
|
3.70
|
1.87
|
Hart's
War
|
15/02/2002
|
8.9
|
$3,622
|
3.90
|
2.09
|
John Q
|
15/02/2002
|
23.6
|
$9,575
|
3.86
|
2.50
|
Aimed more at adult audiences, they have IMs in the range of 3.7 to 4.2 - much stronger than the action/comic-book movies - and they mostly delisted at around or above their adjust price. The ones that didn't were the low-grossing Freedomland and Hart's War.
There aren't many non-romantic comedies released over President's Day, and the ones that have been are a mixed bag. Not a lot of conclusions to draw from this list, though lowest common denominator movies like Date Movie and Big Momma's House 3 had the worst DMs.
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Big
Momma's House 3
|
18/02/2011
|
18.7
|
$6,641
|
3.92
|
1.88
|
Date
Movie
|
17/02/2006
|
21.8
|
$7,522
|
3.18
|
2.03
|
Supertroopers
|
15/02/2002
|
6.2
|
$3,485
|
3.14
|
2.81
|
Whole
Nine Yards
|
18/02/2000
|
15.9
|
$5,469
|
4.66
|
2.88
|
Blast
From the Past
|
12/02/1999
|
9.0
|
$3,544
|
4.42
|
2.62
|
There haven't been many family releases over the weekend in recent years, but as you would expect they have very high IMs, mostly in the 4.5 to 5 range.
Movie
|
First Wide Friday
|
Opening Weekend
($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Escape from Planet Earth
|
15/02/2013
|
21.1
|
$6,418
|
5.7
|
2.27
|
Secret Life of Arriety
|
17/02/2012
|
8.7
|
$5,706
|
5.13
|
2.02
|
Eight Below
|
17/02/2006
|
25.0
|
$8,144
|
4.90
|
2.67
|
Mask 2
|
18/02/2005
|
9.1
|
$4,629
|
4.77
|
1.80
|
Because of Winn-Dixie
|
18/02/2005
|
13.2
|
$4,146
|
4.68
|
2.20
|
Jungle Book 2
|
14/02/2003
|
14.1
|
$5,025
|
4.56
|
2.80
|
Peter Pan 2
|
15/02/2002
|
15.6
|
$5,997
|
5.90
|
2.66
|
The delist multipliers for these movies are either very strong, as for the animated Disney sequels for Peter Pan and The Jungle Book and the Disney sled-dog adventure Eight Below, or mediocre. There's no clear pattern for those mediocre ones.
So what have we learned about President's Day weekend openers?
- expect romantic movies to have an IM of about 4, and possibly stronger where Valentine's Day falls on the weekend
- teenage action movies have historically had IMs in the 3.5 to 4 range and been post-adjust shorts
- teenage dramas have performed betterm, with IMs of well above 4 and delists about 7 to 10 per cent above adjust price
- comic book movies have had IMs in the range of 3 to 3.7 and been post-adjust shorts
- thrillers generally have better IMs than action.comic book movies, and if they made over $10M for the weekend, have delisted above adjust
- for family films, expect an IM in the range of 4.5 to 5 but don't count on post-adjust legs unless it's a Disney film
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