Movie ratings on review aggregator sites like Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic are frequently used as a proxy for a movie's quality. Review aggregators gather lots of reviews for a movie, and then aggregate them into a consensus opinion of whether the movie is good or bad. For example on Rotten Tomatoes, if over 60% of reviews for a movie are positive, the movie is certified as 'Fresh' and it's supposed to be worth seeing. If more than 40% of reviews are negative, the movie is rated as 'Rotten'.
This column will look at whether a movie's score on Rotten Tomatoes is a good indicator of how it will perform after opening weekend. Are the best-reviewed movies also the best-performing post-adjust?
The following table is a summary of every movie with a wide release since January 2008 to the date of writing - over 750 movies - and their rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with their average delist multiplier and delist/adjust multiplier. The delist/adjust multiplier is obtained by dividing the movie's delist price on HSX by its adjust price, and is used as a better comparison for movies with irregular opening weekends, such as mid-week opening or a four-day opening weekends.
RT
Rating
|
Number of
movies in sample |
Average Delist Multiplier
|
Average Delist/Adjust Multiplier
|
0-4
|
16
|
2.12
|
78.2%
|
5-14
|
74
|
2.42
|
89.8%
|
15-24
|
83
|
2.45
|
90.3%
|
25-34
|
89
|
2.36
|
89.4%
|
35-44
|
103
|
2.52
|
93.6%
|
45-54
|
85
|
2.56
|
95.3%
|
55-64
|
84
|
2.66
|
98.5%
|
65-74
|
72
|
2.66
|
99.0%
|
75-84
|
72
|
3.10
|
109.8%
|
85-94
|
70
|
3.20
|
111.5%
|
95-100
|
14
|
3.87
|
128.4%
|
762
|
2.72
|
99%
|
Here is what the relationship looks like in a chart:
This appears to confirm the logic that the better the RT rating, the better the legs. The relationship between the RT rating and the average delist/adjust multiplier is very strong, with a very strong R2 of 0.86. (R2 is the coefficient of determination, and used in statistics to determine how well the trendline fits the data. The closer R2 is to 1, the better the fit).
On average, movies that received 75% or more positive reviews delisted above their adjust price. In particular, movies with 95-100% positive reviews performed, on average, much better than the generally well-received with 75-95% positive reviews.
Movies with an RT rating of 75% or lower delisted, on average, below their adjust price, with badly-reviewed movies delisting at about 90% of adjust price and appalingly-reviewed movies with 0-5% positive reviews delisting at under 80% of adjust.
However, all of these figures are average. As we learned in an earlier discussion about Cinemascore, while the average relationship can be strong, there can also be a lot of variation within that average.
Here are what the individual results look like, with each dot representing a single movie:
As you can see, there is a lot of deviation from the average. There are several well-reviewed movies that delisted well below their adjust price, and several badly-reviewed ones that delisted well above. That R2 number, which fit the averages so well, has fallen to 0.125, suggesting that there's little to no relationship between an individual movie's RT rating and its legs.
It's hard to get a sense from the chart just how many well-reviewed movies do badly and how many badly-reviewed movies do well, so here are the results in table form.
RT
Rating (rounded)
|
% of Movies in Sample that Delisted above
Adjust Price
|
0-4
|
0%
|
5-14
|
20%
|
15-24
|
24%
|
25-34
|
22%
|
35-44
|
27%
|
45-54
|
28%
|
55-64
|
39%
|
65-74
|
43%
|
75-84
|
63%
|
85-94
|
66%
|
95-100
|
86%
|
36%
|
This also makes sense. We know that there are a lot of other variables that can affect a movie's legs, like release date, genre and word of mouth. But exactly what movies are we talking about here? Which bad movies do well? And which good movies fade away? Let's look at the best performing movies with RT ratings under 25%, and the worst performing ones with ratings above 75%.
Here are the the worst-performing movies with RT ratings above 75%:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
RT Rating
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/Adjust
Multiplier |
Iron Man
2
|
07/05/2010
|
91
|
2.18
|
80.8%
|
Tangled
|
26/11/2010
|
80
|
1.57
|
81.3%
|
Haywire
|
20/01/2012
|
87
|
2.21
|
81.7%
|
Hunger
Games 1
|
23/03/2012
|
76
|
2.21
|
81.7%
|
Let Me
In
|
01/10/2010
|
78
|
2.26
|
83.6%
|
Indiana
Jones 4
|
23/05/2008
|
89
|
1.98
|
83.9%
|
Kick-Ass
|
16/04/2010
|
85
|
2.28
|
84.6%
|
Pirates:
Band of Misfits
|
27/04/2012
|
80
|
2.29
|
84.8%
|
Spiderwick
Chronicles
|
15/02/2008
|
90
|
2.40
|
86.0%
|
Precious
|
27/11/2009
|
75
|
2.08
|
86.0%
|
These movies don't have a lot in common. There are front-loaded franchise movies like Iron Man 2, Indiana Jones 4 and the first Hunger Games movie. Kick-Ass probably fits best into this category too. There are two Thanksgiving releases - the animated Tangled and the harrowing drama Precious (which was an expansion). And there are movies that severely disappointed on opening weekend despite positive reviews and quickly left theatres, like Haywire and Let Me In. Weirdly, there are several family movies - Tangled (which did go on to have great legs over the Christmas/New year period, well after its delist on HSX), as well as the Spiderwick Chronicles and Pirates: Band of Misfits, showing that genre is no guarantee of legs either.
And here are the best-performing movies with RT ratings below 25%:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
RT Rating
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/Adjust
Multiplier |
Alvin
& the Chipmunks 2
|
25/12/2009
|
21
|
3.47
|
123.8%
|
Amelia
|
23/10/2009
|
21
|
3.37
|
124.7%
|
Parental
Guidance
|
28/12/2012
|
19
|
3.63
|
125.1%
|
What to
Expect When You're Expecting
|
18/05/2012
|
22
|
3.40
|
125.8%
|
Zookeeper
|
08/07/2011
|
14
|
3.43
|
127.1%
|
New
Year's Eve
|
09/12/2011
|
7
|
3.63
|
134.4%
|
Meet the
Parents 3
|
24/12/2010
|
10
|
3.94
|
139.1%
|
Did You
Hear About the Morgans?
|
18/12/2009
|
12
|
4.28
|
158.7%
|
Yogi
Bear
|
17/12/2010
|
13
|
4.60
|
170.2%
|
Alvin
& the Chipmunks 3
|
16/12/2011
|
13
|
4.80
|
177.8%
|
This group has a lot more in common. Some family movies, some December releases, some movies aimed at women over 25, and most of them fit into more than one of these categories - Yogi Bear, the second and third Chipmunks movies, the third Meet the Parents movie, Parental Guidance, New Year's Eve, Did You Hear About the Morgans? Of the non-Christmas releases, Amelie, What to Expect When You're Expecting are both aimed at women over 25, and Zookeeper is aimed at young children and their parents.
We shouldn't just look at the RT extremes either. We know that movies with an RT rating of 75 or under tend to delist below their adjust price, but there are plenty of movies that have been moderately well-reviewed and delisted well above their adjust price.
Here are the top ten performers with RT ratings in the 65-74 range:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
RT Rating
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/Adjust
Multiplier |
We
Bought A Zoo
|
23/12/2011
|
67
|
4.48
|
202.1%
|
Blind
Side
|
20/11/2009
|
66
|
4.39
|
162.6%
|
Horrible
Bosses
|
08/07/2011
|
69
|
3.40
|
126.0%
|
Limitless
|
18/03/2011
|
70
|
3.39
|
125.7%
|
Our
Idiot Brother
|
26/08/2011
|
68
|
3.38
|
125.0%
|
Ted
|
29/06/2012
|
69
|
3.32
|
122.8%
|
Insidious
|
01/04/2011
|
66
|
3.32
|
122.8%
|
Red 1
|
15/10/2010
|
72
|
3.29
|
122.0%
|
Great
Hope Springs
|
10/08/2012
|
74
|
3.35
|
121.6%
|
Croods
|
22/03/2013
|
65
|
3.26
|
120.9%
|
Lots of movies aimed at non-teens. Interestingly, there are only two family movies in the list - We Bought a Zoo and the Croods. Most of the other movies in the list - Red, Blind Side, Horrible Bosses, Limitless, Great Hope Springs - are aimed squarely at over-25s. Even the movies with more appeal to teenage audiences, such as Ted, Insidious and Horrible Bosses, also appealed to the older audience.
And here are the best performers in the 45-54 range:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
RT Rating
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/Adjust
Multiplier |
This Is
40
|
21/12/2012
|
51
|
5.31
|
196.5%
|
Yes Man
|
19/12/2008
|
45
|
4.89
|
174.6%
|
Narnia 3
- Voyage of the Dawn Treader
|
10/12/2010
|
49
|
3.62
|
134.1%
|
Mamma
Mia
|
18/07/2008
|
54
|
3.75
|
134.0%
|
Christmas
Carol
|
06/11/2009
|
54
|
3.49
|
129.3%
|
Tron 2
|
17/12/2010
|
51
|
3.37
|
124.7%
|
Ice Age
3
|
03/07/2009
|
45
|
3.51
|
124.6%
|
My
Sister's Keeper
|
26/06/2009
|
48
|
3.34
|
123.6%
|
Iron
Lady
|
13/01/2012
|
53
|
3.71
|
122.8%
|
Soul
Surfer
|
08/04/2011
|
45
|
3.19
|
118.2%
|
Again, lots of December releases aimed at families and non-teen audiences. The most interesting movies on the list are Mamma Mia and Ice Age 3, which both delisted well above adjust despite relatively mediocre reviews. This was probably due to strong word of mouth among their target audience - even if critics didn't appreciate the movie, the people buying tickets did.
So what does a high score on RT mean for a movie's legs after opening weekend?
- there's a clear relationship between the average movie's RT score and its legs
- movies with an RT score of 75 or higher are more likely to delist above their adjust price, while movies with an RT score lower than 75 are more likely to delist below adjust
- there is a lot of deviation from the mean, and depending on the movie other factors may ultimately be more important
- in particular, franchise movies that have high RT ratings and open big can still delist well below adjust
- movies that suffer disappointing opening weekends despite positive reviews can quickly disappear from theatres
- even movies that get mediocre reviews, or even terrible reviews can still do really well over the Christmas period
- strong word of mouth - especially for movies aimed at over 25s, or families - can supersede mediocre reviews
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