Monday 18 November 2013

What can I expect from the weekend before Thanksgiving?

Note: this article was written in 2012. The tables have been updated to include more recent box office information, but these changes have not been reflected in the text.

The weekend before Thanksgiving is one of the biggest box office-wise of the year, especially now that it is dominated by teenage franchise movies trying to get a headstart on the holiday season.

It is a normal 3-day weekend, to the adjust is calculated by the usual formula:


Friday-to-Sunday box office (in millions) * 2.7

This column will look at the movies that have been released on the weekend before Thanksgiving over the last fifteen years by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers.

First of all, let's look at the big franchise movies aimed at teenage audiences:


Movie
Release Date
Friday Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Hunger Games 3 – Mockingjay Part 1
21/11/2014
55.1
121.9
$     29,366
2.21
2.27
Hunger Games 2 – Catching Fire
22/11/2013
71.0
158.1
$     37,971
2.23
2.26
Twilight 5 - Breaking Dawn 2
16/11/2012
71.2
141.1
$     34,660
1.98
1.90
Twilight 4 - Breaking Dawn 1
18/11/2011
71.6
138.1
$     34,012
1.93
1.88
Harry Potter 7 - Deathly Hallows 1
19/11/2010
61.7
125.0
$     30,307
2.03
2.06
Twilight 2 - New Moon
20/11/2009
72.7
142.8
$     35,497
1.96
1.87
Twilight 1
21/11/2008
36.0
69.6
$     20,368
1.94
2.15
Harry Potter 4 – Goblet of Fire
18/11/2005
40.1
102.7
$     26,616
2.56
2.38
Harry Potter 1 - Sorcerer's Stone
16/11/2001
32.3
90.3
$     24,590
2.79
2.65

The  first thing to notice is that they have all been successful.  The lowest opening day (including midnights) is ~$32 million, the lowest opening weekend is ~$70 million and the last four years have had four $125 million-plus openers, including three of the top ten of all time.

The second thing to notice is the deplorably low internal multipliers. Since 2008, only one of these movies has cracked the extremely low 2.0 barrier, and then only marginally.  These movies are heavily front-loaded, with the core audience turning out in droves on opening day, but not sustaining this level of interest over the rest of the weekend.

The very high front-loading for these movies is echoed in the very low delist multipliers. Since 2008, these movies have done relatively well if they have doubled their opening weekend box office after four weekends of release, even though they are released right before a big holiday week.  The low delist multipliers provide huge opportunities for shorting the movies post-adjust.

Looking further back, here are the blockbuster movies aimed at adults:


Movie
Release Date
Friday Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Beowulf
16/11/2007
10.0
27.5
$       8,727
2.75
2.77
Bond 21 / Casino Royale
17/11/2006
14.7
40.8
$     11,891
2.77
3.16
National Treasure 1
19/11/2004
11.1
35.1
$     11,648
3.16
3.53
Bond 20 / Die Another Day
22/11/2002
16.6
47.1
$     14,204
2.83
2.80
Sixth Day
17/11/2000
4.3
13.0
$       5,175
3.04
2.53
Bond 19 / World Is Not Enough
19/11/1999
12.1
35.1
$     11,095
2.90
2.83
Enemy of the State
20/11/1998
6.4
19.7
$       8,216
3.09
3.67

None of these movies had opening weekends as big as the recent crop of teenage-targeted films. However, they all had strong IMs in the 2.7-3 range, and with one exception they delisted above their adjust price as more people went to see the movies over Thanksgiving week.

More recently, the weekend has seen some very successful dramas targeted at adults:


Movie
Release Date
Previous Box Office ($M)
Friday Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Dallas Buyers Club
22/11/2013
3.7
0.8
2.7
$     4,035
3.47
3.95
Lincoln
16/11/2012
1.4
6.4
21.0
$    11,859
3.28
4.55
Blind Side
20/11/2009
0.0
11.0
34.1
$    10,971
3.09
4.39
Walk the Line
18/11/2005
0.0
7.6
22.3
$     7,547
2.94
3.45

Again, they have had very strong IMs - in the 3+ range - and extraordinarily high delist multipliers, as adults are more likely to wait until Saturday or Sunday or the next weekend before seeing a movie they want to see.  This is a very small sample, but there appear to be some very strong opportunities for profit by holding these movies long post-adjust.

Marking the start of the holiday season, the weekend before Thanksgiving is also a popular time to release movies that families will go see together:

Movie
Release Date
Friday Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Happy Feet 2
18/11/2011
5.9
21.2
$       5,889
3.63
2.67
Planet 51
20/11/2009
3.2
12.3
$       4,048
3.86
3.02
Bolt
21/11/2008
7.0
26.2
$       7,182
3.73
3.39
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
16/11/2007
2.6
9.6
$       3,044
3.70
3.01
Happy Feet 1
17/11/2006
12.3
41.5
$     10,918
3.39
3.32
Spongebob Squarepants 1
19/11/2004
9.6
32.0
$       9,968
3.35
2.30
Cat in the Hat
21/11/2003
11.2
38.3
$     11,065
3.41
2.37
Rugrats 2
17/11/2000
6.0
22.7
$       7,743
3.79
2.66
How the Grinch Stole Christmas
17/11/2000
15.6
55.1
$     17,615
3.52
3.55
Rugrats 1
20/11/1998
6.7
27.1
$       9,753
4.03
2.70

As you would expect, these movies have very high IMs - the lowest being 3.35 for the Spongebob Squarepants movie. However, the delist multipliers are a mixed bag.  Ordinarily it is rare for family movies to delist below adjust price, but four out of these ten movies - the second Happy Feet and Rugrats movies, Spongebob Squarepants and Cat in the Hat - did just that. The highest DM - 3.55 - was for the Grinch movie, which had an obvious appeal over the weeks leading up to Christmas, and another four movies provided post-adjust gains of 10-20%.  Post-adjust play looks best-done on a case-by-case basis.

Those are the main types of movies released on the weekend before Thanksgiving, but there is often some counter-programming.

Here are the horror films released on this weekend:

Movie
Release Date
Friday Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Gothika
21/11/2003
6.7
19.3
$       8,098
2.87
2.80
Sleepy Hollow
19/11/1999
10.0
29.2
$       9,536
2.91
2.78

Both these movies are aimed at adults and performed decently with IMs in the 2.8-3 range and a delist above adjust.

The only comedy released on this weekend:

Movie
Release Date
Friday Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Delivery Man
22/11/2013
2.8
7.9
$     2,617
2.87
3.54
Friday 3 - Friday After Next
22/11/2002
4.4
13.0
$       8,045
2.95
2.39

The third Friday movie had a pretty good IM for a sequel, but it performed poorly post-adjust.

And there are a bunch of random dramas that weren't very successful on their opening weekends:

Movie
Release Date
Friday Box Office ($M)
Opening Weekend ($M)
Per Screen Average
Internal Multiplier
Delist Multiplier
Next Three Days
19/11/2010
2.2
6.5
$       2,552
2.94
3.10
Love in the Time of Cholera
16/11/2007
0.6
1.9
$       2,258
3.06
2.33
Bounce
17/11/2000
3.1
9.4
$       4,897
3.05
3.63
Rainmaker
21/11/1997
3.1
10.2
$       4,382
3.27
3.86

They all had strong IMs of 2.9 or above, and three of these four delisted above adjust, but overall none of them made much impact at the box office.

So, what have we learned about the weekend before Thanksgiving?
  • Franchise movies aimed at teenagers open big. Really big. They have especially big Fridays, but the IM is usually around 2. They also tend to perform poorly after the opening weekend, delisting around 25-30 per cent below adjust price.
  • Movies aimed at adults typically have IMs of around 3 and a delist above the adjust price. The opportunities for post-adjust profit from action/franchise movies are marginal, but dramas that perform well provide especially good opportunities for making money with a post-adjust long.
  • Animated movies have strong IMs, typically in the 3.5-4 range. However, even though Thanksgiving being a big family movie time, the post-adjust prospects are not great, with delists 10-15% above adjust price being typical.

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