Note: this article was written in 2012. The tables have been
updated to include more recent box office information, but these changes have
not been reflected in the text.
It is a normal 3-day weekend, to the adjust is calculated by the usual formula:
Friday-to-Sunday box office (in millions) * 2.7
This column will look at the movies that have been released on the weekend before Thanksgiving over the last fifteen years by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers.
First of all, let's look at the big franchise movies aimed at teenage audiences:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Hunger Games 3 – Mockingjay Part 1
|
21/11/2014
|
55.1
|
121.9
|
$ 29,366
|
2.21
|
2.27
|
Hunger Games 2 – Catching Fire
|
22/11/2013
|
71.0
|
158.1
|
$ 37,971
|
2.23
|
2.26
|
Twilight 5 - Breaking Dawn 2
|
16/11/2012
|
71.2
|
141.1
|
$ 34,660
|
1.98
|
1.90
|
Twilight 4 - Breaking Dawn 1
|
18/11/2011
|
71.6
|
138.1
|
$ 34,012
|
1.93
|
1.88
|
Harry Potter 7 - Deathly
Hallows 1
|
19/11/2010
|
61.7
|
125.0
|
$ 30,307
|
2.03
|
2.06
|
Twilight 2 - New Moon
|
20/11/2009
|
72.7
|
142.8
|
$ 35,497
|
1.96
|
1.87
|
Twilight 1
|
21/11/2008
|
36.0
|
69.6
|
$ 20,368
|
1.94
|
2.15
|
Harry Potter 4 – Goblet of
Fire
|
18/11/2005
|
40.1
|
102.7
|
$ 26,616
|
2.56
|
2.38
|
Harry Potter 1 - Sorcerer's
Stone
|
16/11/2001
|
32.3
|
90.3
|
$ 24,590
|
2.79
|
2.65
|
The first thing to notice is that they have all been successful. The lowest opening day (including midnights) is ~$32 million, the lowest opening weekend is ~$70 million and the last four years have had four $125 million-plus openers, including three of the top ten of all time.
The second thing to notice is the deplorably low internal multipliers. Since 2008, only one of these movies has cracked the extremely low 2.0 barrier, and then only marginally. These movies are heavily front-loaded, with the core audience turning out in droves on opening day, but not sustaining this level of interest over the rest of the weekend.
The very high front-loading for these movies is echoed in the very low delist multipliers. Since 2008, these movies have done relatively well if they have doubled their opening weekend box office after four weekends of release, even though they are released right before a big holiday week. The low delist multipliers provide huge opportunities for shorting the movies post-adjust.
Looking further back, here are the blockbuster movies aimed at adults:
Again, they have had very strong IMs - in the 3+ range - and extraordinarily high delist multipliers, as adults are more likely to wait until Saturday or Sunday or the next weekend before seeing a movie they want to see. This is a very small sample, but there appear to be some very strong opportunities for profit by holding these movies long post-adjust.
As you would expect, these movies have very high IMs - the lowest being 3.35 for the Spongebob Squarepants movie. However, the delist multipliers are a mixed bag. Ordinarily it is rare for family movies to delist below adjust price, but four out of these ten movies - the second Happy Feet and Rugrats movies, Spongebob Squarepants and Cat in the Hat - did just that. The highest DM - 3.55 - was for the Grinch movie, which had an obvious appeal over the weeks leading up to Christmas, and another four movies provided post-adjust gains of 10-20%. Post-adjust play looks best-done on a case-by-case basis.
Both these movies are aimed at adults and performed decently with IMs in the 2.8-3 range and a delist above adjust.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Beowulf
|
16/11/2007
|
10.0
|
27.5
|
$ 8,727
|
2.75
|
2.77
|
Bond 21
/ Casino Royale
|
17/11/2006
|
14.7
|
40.8
|
$
11,891
|
2.77
|
3.16
|
National
Treasure 1
|
19/11/2004
|
11.1
|
35.1
|
$
11,648
|
3.16
|
3.53
|
Bond 20
/ Die Another Day
|
22/11/2002
|
16.6
|
47.1
|
$
14,204
|
2.83
|
2.80
|
Sixth
Day
|
17/11/2000
|
4.3
|
13.0
|
$ 5,175
|
3.04
|
2.53
|
Bond 19
/ World Is Not Enough
|
19/11/1999
|
12.1
|
35.1
|
$
11,095
|
2.90
|
2.83
|
Enemy of
the State
|
20/11/1998
|
6.4
|
19.7
|
$ 8,216
|
3.09
|
3.67
|
None of these movies had opening weekends as big as the recent crop of teenage-targeted films. However, they all had strong IMs in the 2.7-3 range, and with one exception they delisted above their adjust price as more people went to see the movies over Thanksgiving week.
More recently, the weekend has seen some very successful dramas targeted at adults:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Dallas Buyers Club
|
22/11/2013
|
3.7
|
0.8
|
2.7
|
$ 4,035
|
3.47
|
3.95
|
Lincoln
|
16/11/2012
|
1.4
|
6.4
|
21.0
|
$ 11,859
|
3.28
|
4.55
|
Blind Side
|
20/11/2009
|
0.0
|
11.0
|
34.1
|
$ 10,971
|
3.09
|
4.39
|
Walk the Line
|
18/11/2005
|
0.0
|
7.6
|
22.3
|
$ 7,547
|
2.94
|
3.45
|
Again, they have had very strong IMs - in the 3+ range - and extraordinarily high delist multipliers, as adults are more likely to wait until Saturday or Sunday or the next weekend before seeing a movie they want to see. This is a very small sample, but there appear to be some very strong opportunities for profit by holding these movies long post-adjust.
Marking the start of the holiday season, the weekend before Thanksgiving is also a popular time to release movies that families will go see together:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Happy
Feet 2
|
18/11/2011
|
5.9
|
21.2
|
$ 5,889
|
3.63
|
2.67
|
Planet
51
|
20/11/2009
|
3.2
|
12.3
|
$
4,048
|
3.86
|
3.02
|
Bolt
|
21/11/2008
|
7.0
|
26.2
|
$ 7,182
|
3.73
|
3.39
|
Mr.
Magorium's Wonder Emporium
|
16/11/2007
|
2.6
|
9.6
|
$
3,044
|
3.70
|
3.01
|
Happy
Feet 1
|
17/11/2006
|
12.3
|
41.5
|
$
10,918
|
3.39
|
3.32
|
Spongebob
Squarepants 1
|
19/11/2004
|
9.6
|
32.0
|
$
9,968
|
3.35
|
2.30
|
Cat in
the Hat
|
21/11/2003
|
11.2
|
38.3
|
$
11,065
|
3.41
|
2.37
|
Rugrats
2
|
17/11/2000
|
6.0
|
22.7
|
$
7,743
|
3.79
|
2.66
|
How the
Grinch Stole Christmas
|
17/11/2000
|
15.6
|
55.1
|
$
17,615
|
3.52
|
3.55
|
Rugrats
1
|
20/11/1998
|
6.7
|
27.1
|
$
9,753
|
4.03
|
2.70
|
As you would expect, these movies have very high IMs - the lowest being 3.35 for the Spongebob Squarepants movie. However, the delist multipliers are a mixed bag. Ordinarily it is rare for family movies to delist below adjust price, but four out of these ten movies - the second Happy Feet and Rugrats movies, Spongebob Squarepants and Cat in the Hat - did just that. The highest DM - 3.55 - was for the Grinch movie, which had an obvious appeal over the weeks leading up to Christmas, and another four movies provided post-adjust gains of 10-20%. Post-adjust play looks best-done on a case-by-case basis.
Those are the main types of movies released on the weekend before Thanksgiving, but there is often some counter-programming.
Here are the horror films released on this weekend:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Gothika
|
21/11/2003
|
6.7
|
19.3
|
$ 8,098
|
2.87
|
2.80
|
Sleepy
Hollow
|
19/11/1999
|
10.0
|
29.2
|
$
9,536
|
2.91
|
2.78
|
Both these movies are aimed at adults and performed decently with IMs in the 2.8-3 range and a delist above adjust.
The only comedy released on this weekend:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delivery Man
|
22/11/2013
|
2.8
|
7.9
|
$ 2,617
|
2.87
|
3.54
|
Friday 3 - Friday After Next
|
22/11/2002
|
4.4
|
13.0
|
$ 8,045
|
2.95
|
2.39
|
The third Friday movie had a pretty good IM for a sequel, but it performed poorly post-adjust.
And there are a bunch of random dramas that weren't very successful on their opening weekends:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Next
Three Days
|
19/11/2010
|
2.2
|
6.5
|
$ 2,552
|
2.94
|
3.10
|
Love in
the Time of Cholera
|
16/11/2007
|
0.6
|
1.9
|
$
2,258
|
3.06
|
2.33
|
Bounce
|
17/11/2000
|
3.1
|
9.4
|
$ 4,897
|
3.05
|
3.63
|
Rainmaker
|
21/11/1997
|
3.1
|
10.2
|
$
4,382
|
3.27
|
3.86
|
They all had strong IMs of 2.9 or above, and three of these four delisted above adjust, but overall none of them made much impact at the box office.
So, what have we learned about the weekend before Thanksgiving?
- Franchise movies aimed at teenagers open big. Really big. They have especially big Fridays, but the IM is usually around 2. They also tend to perform poorly after the opening weekend, delisting around 25-30 per cent below adjust price.
- Movies aimed at adults typically have IMs of around 3 and a delist above the adjust price. The opportunities for post-adjust profit from action/franchise movies are marginal, but dramas that perform well provide especially good opportunities for making money with a post-adjust long.
- Animated movies have strong IMs, typically in the 3.5-4 range. However, even though Thanksgiving being a big family movie time, the post-adjust prospects are not great, with delists 10-15% above adjust price being typical.
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