Labor Day weekend is the last holiday weekend of the summer, but that doesn't mean it gets a lot of big tentpole releases. Probably because a lot of people are outside trying to enjoy the last gasps of summer, the studios tend to release a lot of B-movies - adult-targeted thrillers, low-budget horror, unfunny comedies and guilty pleasure action movies - that wouldn't play in summer. It's often a crowded weekend for new releases, and openers rarely have much room to perform above expectations.
Labor Day weekend is a four day weekend, and films released over the weekend will have their adjust on Monday instead of the usual Sunday. The adjust is calculated from the following formula:
Friday-to-Monday box office (in millions) * 2.2
Having a 4 day figure adds, on average, 24% to the three day Friday-to-Sunday figure.
This column will look at the movies that have been released on Labor Day weekend over the last fifteen years by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers.
First, let's look at the thrillers, which are targeted at those adults who are uninterested in summer blockbusters. (I've also included Vanity Fair and The Good Girl in this list - while not exactly thrillers, they are both aimed at adults looking for a "serious" movie). Almost all of them had a mid-week release (The Illusionist and The Good Girl had platform releases), presumably to build word-of-mouth before the weekend, and while several performed decently only one - The American, starring George Clooney - opened above $15 million.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
November Man
|
29/08/2014
|
1.7
|
2.2
|
10.1
|
$3,640
|
4.58
|
2.25
|
Getaway
|
30/08/2014
|
0.0
|
1.4
|
5.6
|
$3,948
|
3.92
|
1.86
|
Closed Circuit
|
30/08/2014
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
3.1
|
$3,616
|
4.17
|
1.68
|
Lawless
|
29/08/2012
|
2.1
|
2.8
|
12.9
|
$4,457
|
4.65
|
2.51
|
Debt
|
31/08/2011
|
1.9
|
2.6
|
12.9
|
$7,038
|
4.88
|
2.11
|
American
|
01/09/2010
|
3.1
|
3.8
|
16.7
|
$6,124
|
4.33
|
1.89
|
Traitor
|
27/08/2008
|
1.5
|
2.2
|
10.0
|
$4,872
|
4.54
|
2.09
|
Illusionist
|
30/08/2006
|
4.1
|
1.6
|
8.0
|
$8,198
|
5.06
|
2.96
|
Constant Gardener
|
30/08/2005
|
1.7
|
2.3
|
11.0
|
$8,144
|
4.87
|
2.37
|
Wicker Park
|
03/09/2004
|
0.0
|
1.7
|
6.8
|
$2,625
|
3.92
|
1.88
|
Vanity Fair
|
01/09/2004
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
6.3
|
$5,965
|
4.64
|
2.20
|
Good Girl
|
30/08/2002
|
3.7
|
0.8
|
3.8
|
$5,704
|
4.83
|
2.36
|
As you'd expect from movies targeting adults, they have consistently high internal multipliers in the 4.5 to 5 range. 4.6 was the average, with Wicker Park being the only one with an IM under 4. The average delist multiplier of the group is 2.26, but there's a lot of variation. The Illusionist's high DM, close to 3, is thanks in part to a further expansion after the weekend. Without that movie skewing the results, the average DM for the group slips to 2.17.
Let's look at the guilty pleasure action movies, which feature B-list stars or lower. If these movies were any good, they would have gotten a summer release, but they aren't so they don't.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Grandmaster
|
30/08/2014
|
9.7
|
3.2
|
$4,247
|
4.29
|
1.92
|
Machete
|
03/09/2010
|
3.9
|
14.1
|
$5,282
|
3.65
|
1.82
|
Gamer
|
04/09/2009
|
3.3
|
11.2
|
$4,478
|
3.39
|
1.80
|
Babylon A.D.
|
29/08/2008
|
3.1
|
11.5
|
$3,405
|
3.70
|
1.88
|
Death Sentence
|
31/08/2007
|
1.4
|
5.3
|
$2,929
|
3.90
|
1.75
|
Crank 1
|
01/09/2006
|
3.3
|
12.9
|
$5,128
|
3.86
|
2.07
|
Transporter 2
|
02/09/2005
|
5.6
|
20.1
|
$6,087
|
3.61
|
1.98
|
Paparazzi
|
03/09/2004
|
1.8
|
7.9
|
$3,714
|
4.33
|
1.94
|
Highlander 4
|
01/09/2000
|
1.9
|
6.3
|
$4,065
|
3.35
|
1.91
|
There are basically two sub-groups of movies here - over-the-top action movies like Machete, Crank and Transporter 2 and stalker/revenge type movies like Death Sentence and Paparazzi that could equally fit in the thriller section above. The over-the-top movies play more to the Friday-night crowds, with IMs in the 3.6 range, while the stalker/revenge movies have a higher IM of around 4. Transporter 2 is the stand-out success, with the Jason Statham-vehicle being the first Labor Day weekend movie ever to open over $20 million. All of these movies delisted below their adjust price - on average, 14 per cent lower.
Moving onto the comedies, let's first look at the ones aimed at female audiences. There's usually only one summer movie aimed at women, but even so the target audience would have to feel pretty starved of attention before seeing any of these.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Going
the Distance
|
03/09/2010
|
2.2
|
8.5
|
$2,808
|
3.82
|
2.06
|
Extract
|
04/09/2009
|
1.3
|
5.5
|
$3,422
|
4.13
|
1.93
|
All
About Steve
|
04/09/2009
|
3.5
|
14.1
|
$6,245
|
3.97
|
2.13
|
Le
Divorce
|
29/08/2003
|
0.4
|
2.1
|
$2,956
|
4.73
|
2.21
|
The IMs are slightly above the guilty-pleasure action movies, around 4 or so, but only one of them managed to open above $10 million thanks mostly to Sandra Bullock. The average delist multiplier is 2.08, which means only marginal gains from a post-adjust short.
Now for the comedies aimed at younger audiences. (I've included Crossover, which isn't a comedy but a high-school sports movie, in this category as it is also aimed at under-25s). The only movie to gross above - or even close to $10 was Balls of Fury. For the others, it was a case of "if you think this movie can't possibly open lower than extremely low expectations, it will".
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
One Direction: This Is Us
|
30/08/2013
|
0.0
|
8.9
|
18.5
|
$6,754
|
2.08
|
1.54
|
College
|
29/08/2008
|
0.0
|
0.7
|
2.6
|
$1,234
|
3.66
|
1.78
|
Disaster Movie
|
29/08/2008
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
6.9
|
$2,629
|
3.43
|
1.96
|
Hamlet 2
|
27/08/2008
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
2.1
|
$1,331
|
4.17
|
1.80
|
Balls of Fury
|
29/08/2007
|
3.0
|
3.4
|
14.1
|
$5,022
|
4.11
|
2.01
|
Crossover
|
01/09/2006
|
0.0
|
1.2
|
4.4
|
$4,303
|
3.71
|
1.59
|
Underclassman
|
02/09/2005
|
0.0
|
0.8
|
3.1
|
$2,727
|
4.07
|
1.80
|
Cook-Out
|
03/09/2004
|
0.0
|
1.5
|
6.2
|
$4,774
|
4.08
|
1.81
|
IMs are surprisingly decent with an average of 3.9, but the average delist multiplier is 1.82, about 17 per cent below the adjust price, making a post-adjust short a no-brainer.
Horror movies have typically been the most successful movies over Labor Day weekend, and 2013 looks to be no exception with the release of One Direction: This Is Us. The Rob Zombie Hallowe'en reboot was the most successful Labor Day weekend opener of all time with a take of over $30 million, while terrible movies like Apollo 18 have managed to scrape together $10 million over the weekend - even against competition from Shark Night 3D.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
As Above So Below
|
29/08/2014
|
3.2
|
10.3
|
$3,895
|
3.18
|
2.00
|
Possession
|
31/08/2012
|
6.1
|
21.1
|
$7,485
|
3.47
|
2.15
|
Apollo 18
|
02/09/2011
|
2.8
|
10.7
|
$3,217
|
3.76
|
1.62
|
Shark Night 3D
|
02/09/2011
|
2.8
|
10.1
|
$3,609
|
3.62
|
1.80
|
Halloween 1
|
31/08/2007
|
10.9
|
30.6
|
$8,811
|
2.81
|
1.79
|
Jeepers Creepers 2
|
29/08/2003
|
5.3
|
18.4
|
$5,879
|
3.46
|
1.83
|
feardotcom
|
30/08/2002
|
1.8
|
7.1
|
$2,779
|
3.88
|
1.81
|
Jeepers Creepers 1
|
31/08/2001
|
4.3
|
15.8
|
$5,354
|
3.65
|
2.13
|
The average IM for the group is 3.47 - or 3.62 if you take out the front-loaded, fan-boy driven Hallowe'en reboot. The average delist multiplier is 1.88, or about 15 per cent below adjust.
In this column, I've obviously taken some leaps by shoehorning movies into categories they don't strictly fit into. But even with these efforts, some movies are impossible to categorise:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Oogieloves
|
29/08/2012
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.6
|
$ 282
|
4.89
|
1.37
|
So, what have we learned about the Labor Day weekend openers?
- Lower your expectations from summer. Labor Day is the weakest of the holiday weekends, with only three movies ever opening over $20 million. Horror movies are the only genre that has really opened big on this weekend.
- Expect movies that target adults to have relatively high IMs - about 4.6 for thrillers and 4.0 for romantic comedies - and there are generally only marginal gains from a post-adjust short.
- Expect movies targeting younger audiences to have lower IMs - about 3.9 for comedies and 3.6 for horror and action movies - and usually delist around 15 per cent below their adjust price.
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