Will this limited release report box office?

One of the frustrations that starbond traders have is when they are expecting a starbond to have a profitable adjust, only to have it not report box office to ERC.  (If you're not familiar with this issue, it is explained in this column).  Obviously it would be useful to know whether a movie is likely to report box office before you invest in the starbond. However, doing this research for every limited release is time consuming, tedious and easily forgotten.  After many years of doing nothing about it, I finally got fed up with being on the wrong side of starbond movements and decided to look systematically at the studios that do and do not report box office, and develop a reference to hold that information.

The new spreadsheet is called Will It Report?.  It has data on films that had a limited release starting in January 2015, the studio behind the release and whether box office was reported to ERC.  The studio behind the release is the same as that listed on the relevant moviestock page, except in cases where the moviestock page does not list a studio, and this information has been gained from another source. These studios are marked with an asterisk.

Will It Report? also analyses the data through a simple formula and suggests how reliable a particular studio is at reporting box office.  Because these predictions have not been tested and are probably not going to be 100% accurate, I've stolen pithy results from the Magic 8-Ball as the answers.

Like other HSXsanity tools such as the predictions database and the midnight box office database, I plan to continue updating Will It Report? for future releases.  Also like other HSXsanity spreadsheets I'll do my best to make it as accurate as I can, but errors happen, real life gets in the way and so on.

Not having looked at this issue in detail before, there were a couple of results that challenged my assumptions on which studios reported and which did not:

• Lionsgate - or rather, its subsidiaries and partners - are inconsistent about whether they report box office.  Movies released under the Pantelion label, which is aimed at Latino audiences and backed by Lionsgate - such as ALMAL, LVRBT and VATAP, which all had releases in 300 or more theatres - consistently report box office.  Other Lionsgate-related brands, such as  Grindstone Entertainment (a subsidiary) and Saban Films (a partner) have not reported box office.
• Weinstein reported box office for nine of its eleven limited releases. The two movies that did not report - EVRLY and MNST2 - were both released under the Radius-TWC brand, which specialises in VOD.
• Independent wings of major studios such as Focus Features, Fox Searchlight and Sony Pictures Classics reliably report box office, but major studios that want to bury movies (for example, Paramount and ARE51), or that decide to release a movie through their VOD brand (Sony/Stage 6 and PDSTN) are not.
• IFC Films is surprisingly spotty about reporting box office. My vague impression was that they reliably reported box office, but they reported on only 8 out of 17 films - generally the most successful ones.  MTCH was the only film to report with a theatre count in the single digits, and SALVT (box office of $42K) was the only film not to report with a total box office of over $20K.

There's clearly more work to be done in parsing out which movies are likely to report and which are not - though I'm not planning to get down in the weeds in this column.  But hopefully Will It Report? is a useful reference that you can use to flag possible starbond adjust issues when you're looking at other starbond tools such as kaigee.com,  the HSXDude's Post-Adjust Bond Show or even doing your own math.

What can I expect from Thanksgiving?

Note: this article was written in 2012. The tables have been updated to include more recent box office information, but these changes have not been reflected in the text.

Thanksgiving is the first weekend of the holiday season.  It's a time to spend together with family, but because a lot of people run out of things to do with their family after the turkey is eaten, it's also a time to see movies with family. It's a particularly popular time to release Christmas movies, because it's never too early to start getting folks stuff buying stuff to do with Christmas.

Thanksgiving falls on a Thursday, so Thanksgiving releases open on Wednesday, making it the only five-day weekend of the year. The adjust is calculated by the following formula:

Wednesday-to-Sunday box office (in millions) * 2.0

This column will look at the movies that have been released on Thanksgiving weekend over the last fifteen years by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers.

The tables will list two internal multipliers - the Friday-to-Sunday internal multiplier, which is calculated by dividing the three-day weekend box office by the Friday box office, and the five-day multiplier, which is calculated by dividing the five-day box office total by the Wednesday box office - but we will focus on the five-day multiplier.

The delist multiplier is calculated by dividing the total box office after four weekends of wide release by the box office earned over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend.

Let's begin with a look at the family films that have been released on Thanksgiving over the years.  First, the animated films:

Movie	Release Date (Wide)	Previous Box Office ($M)	Wed Box Office ($M)	Thur Box Office ($M)	Fri Box Office ($M)	Sat Box Office ($M)	Sun Box Office ($M)	Opening Weekend ($M)	Fri-Sun Internal Multiplier	5-day Internal Multiplier	Delist Multiplier
Penguins of Madagascar	26/11/2014	0.0	6.1	3.9	10.4	9.6	5.5	35.4	2.46	5.8	1.81
Frozen	27/11/2013	0.2	15.2	11.0	26.8	25.3	15.2	93.6	2.51	6.16	2.05
Rise of the Guardians	21/11/2012	0.0	4.8	3.7	9.2	9.2	5.4	32.3	2.58	6.69	2.20
Arthur Christmas	23/11/2011	0.0	2.4	1.8	4.5	4.8	2.8	16.3	2.68	6.82	2.36
Tangled	24/11/2010	0.0	11.9	8.1	19.5	18.6	10.7	68.7	2.49	5.79	1.86
Fantastic Mr. Fox	25/11/2009	0.6	1.1	1.3	3.0	2.6	1.4	9.4	2.34	8.47	1.78
8 Crazy Nights	27/11/2002	0.0	2.6	2.0	4.0	3.7	1.8	14.0	2.35	5.44	1.65
Treasure Planet	27/11/2002	0.0	2.3	2.2	5.0	4.5	2.6	16.6	2.42	7.07	1.80
Toy Story 2	24/11/1999	0.4	9.6	13.1	22.6	21.4	13.4	80.1	2.54	8.37	1.95
A Bug's Life	25/11/1998	0.0	5.2	7.3	13.1	12.5	7.7	45.7	2.54	6.69	2.10

While there is a lot of variation in box office depending on the movie, four of the eight movies have five-day IMs between 6.5 and 7.  The outliers on the low side are Tangled - which had a huge opening day, and would be more appealing to girls than boys - and 8 Crazy Nights - more appealing to boys than girls - on the low side.  Movies with IMs above the average are Fantastic Mr. Fox, which being a Wes Anderson film, probably had more appeal to adults than children, and Toy Story 2.

Surprisingly for family movies, few of them have good legs, with five out of eight delisting below their adjust price.  Even movies that went on to make a lot more at the box office, like Tangled and Toy Story 2, have low delist multipliers.

There are two reasons for this - first, Thanksgiving weekend is a popular time to see movies, which front-loads the box office, and secondly parents are the decision-makers of when to take their young children to the movies, and they tend to either take them on Thanksgiving weekend, or wait until the Christmas holidays, when these movies have a second box office wind.  During the period in between, parents have other priorities.

Looking closer at the individual delist multipliers, it's worth noting that two of the three movies to delist above adjust had Christmas themes - Rise of the Guardians and Arthur Christmas - although the Hannukah-focussed 8 Crazy Nights had the lowest delist multiplier of the group (or of any Thanksgiving movie).

Here are the family movies which are not animated:

Movie	Release Date (Wide)	Wed Box Office ($M)	Thur Box Office ($M)	Fri Box Office ($M)	Sat Box Office ($M)	Sun Box Office ($M)	Opening Weekend ($M)	Fri-Sun Internal Multiplier	5-day Internal Multiplier	Delist Multiplier
Muppets	23/11/2011	6.5	5.8	12.1	10.9	6.2	41.5	2.41	6.38	1.71
Hugo	23/11/2011	1.7	2.4	4.5	4.4	2.5	15.4	2.52	9.16	2.54
August Rush	21/11/2007	1.9	2.0	3.8	3.7	1.9	13.2	2.50	7.11	2.12
Enchanted	21/11/2007	8.0	6.7	14.4	12.9	7.2	49.1	2.40	7.64	1.87
Yours, Mine and Ours	23/11/2005	3.2	3.7	7.2	6.8	3.5	24.3	2.44	10.09	1.86
102 Dalmatians	22/11/2000	2.6	3.8	7.7	7.8	4.3	26.2	2.58	8.87	1.83
Flubber	26/11/1997	3.2	5.6	10.7	9.8	5.9	35.1	2.47	11.14	1.83

These movies have generally bigger IMs than their animated counterparts, with six out of seven having five-day IMs above 7. The exception here is the Muppets which was front-loaded, having the second-biggest opening day.

Continuing the trend of Thanksgiving movies delisting having poor legs, five out of the seven movies delisted below their adjust price. The only one to delist significantly above its adjust was Hugo, which attracted adults by having awards buzz and being directed by Martin Scorsese.  Thanksgiving releases are clearly an exception to the common logic that family movies delist above adjust price.

Here are the Christmas-themed movies:

Movie	Release Date (Wide)	Wed Box Office ($M)	Thur Box Office ($M)	Fri Box Office ($M)	Sat Box Office ($M)	Sun Box Office ($M)	Opening Weekend ($M)	Fri-Sun Internal Multiplier	5-day Internal Multiplier	Delist Multiplier
Four Christmases	26/11/2008	6.1	8.9	13.1	12.2	5.8	46.1	2.37	7.57	2.17
This Christmas	21/11/2007	4.2	4.2	7.4	7.3	3.2	26.3	2.42	6.25	1.75
Deck the Halls	22/11/2006	2.0	2.9	5.0	4.7	2.3	16.9	2.40	8.36	1.94
Christmas with the Kranks	24/11/2004	3.4	5.8	8.9	8.5	4.2	30.8	2.43	8.98	2.01
Bad Santa	26/11/2003	1.6	2.9	4.6	4.9	2.8	16.8	2.69	10.23	2.55

We saw earlier that animated movies with Christmas themes tended to have better legs than their non-Christmas counterparts, and for the most part these movies also managed to delist above (or at least very close to) their adjust price.

Bad Santa - which isn't at all like the saccharine Christmas movies that make up the rest of the list - had the highest five-day IM of the bunch and was the only one to delist significantly above its adjust price.  Four Christmases, had the most star power and the biggest opening day, and a relatively medoicre IM of 7.5. This Christmas, which was aimed at African-American audiences, had the second-biggest opening day, but the lowest IM and DM of the group. Deck the Halls and Christmas with the Kranks were less successful at enticing audiences out on Thanksgiving Eve, but by the time their weekends rolled around people decided they might as well see them.

For a change of pace, here are the musicals released over Thanksgiving:

Movie	Release Date (Wide)	Wed Box Office ($M)	Thur Box Office ($M)	Fri Box Office ($M)	Sat Box Office ($M)	Sun Box Office ($M)	Opening Weekend ($M)	Fri-Sun Internal Multiplier	5-day Internal Multiplier	Delist Multiplier
Black Nativity	27/11/2013	0.4	0.7	1.6	1.5	0.6	4.8	2.35	10.98	1.46
Burlesque	24/11/2010	2.9	2.5	4.5	4.7	2.8	17.3	2.63	6.04	2.05
Rent	23/11/2005	4.8	2.4	4.3	3.8	1.9	17.1	2.33	3.61	1.65

This is a small sample, so take any inferences with a grain of salt, but these are the worst five-day IMs we have seen so far and (spoiler) Rent has the lowest IM of any Thanksgiving release in this article.  Obviously this is a very small sample, but both musicals had high up-front interest from fans, and relatively low weekend interest from the general audience. The delist multipliers are also not great. Burlesque managed to delist a little above the adjust, but Rent tied for the lowest delist multiplier out of the films surveyed in this column.

Thanksgiving is also a popular time to release movies that might win some love over the awards season, if only they can earn a lot of box office before then. Most of them don't, but that's another story.  Here are the dramas:

Movie	Release Date (Wide)	Wed Box Office ($M)	Thur Box Office ($M)	Fri Box Office ($M)	Sat Box Office ($M)	Sun Box Office ($M)	Opening Weekend ($M)	Fri-Sun Internal Multiplier	5-day Internal Multiplier	Delist Multiplier
Theory of Everything	26/11/2014	0.6	0.7	1.9	2.0	1.1	6.4	2.58	10.3	2.62
Philomena	27/11/2013	0.4	0.4	1.3	1.4	0.9	4.5	2.76	11.3	2.36
Book Thief	27/11/2013	0.7	0.8	1.9	1.9	1.1	6.4	2.56	8.83	2.26
Life of Pi	21/11/2012	3.6	4.5	8.9	8.5	5.1	30.6	2.53	8.39	2.28
Love and Other Drugs	24/11/2010	2.2	1.9	3.8	3.9	2.1	13.9	2.55	6.21	2.17
Australia	26/11/2008	2.3	2.9	5.8	5.8	3.3	20.0	2.56	8.82	2.09
No Country For Old Men	21/11/2007	1.4	1.5	3.1	3.0	1.7	10.7	2.51	7.67	2.60
Fountain	22/11/2006	0.8	0.9	1.5	1.4	0.9	5.5	2.52	6.61	1.79
The Queen	22/11/2006	0.3	0.4	1.0	1.0	0.6	2.6	2.65	7.84	3.08
Bobby	22/11/2006	0.0	1.2	1.9	1.9	1.1	4.9	2.56	-	2.21
Pride and Prejudice	23/11/2005	1.1	1.2	2.8	2.8	1.6	9.5	2.59	8.31	2.42
Alexander	24/11/2004	4.0	4.2	5.6	5.1	3.0	21.8	2.47	5.47	1.54

Australia, Life of Pi and Pride and Prejudice all had very high five-day IMs of 8 or more, and No Country For Old Men and The Queen also did well with IMs in the 7.5-8 range.  Of the movies with an IM of 7 or lower, only Love and Other Drugs went on to delist above adjust price, and the only two movies to delist below their adjust price - The Fountain and Alexander - were either not very accessible to audiences, or were just plain bad.

Here are the Thanksgiving comedies.  All of them are notably forgettable.

Movie	Release Date (Wide)	Wed Box Office ($M)	Thur Box Office ($M)	Fri Box Office ($M)	Sat Box Office ($M)	Sun Box Office ($M)	Opening Weekend ($M)	Fri-Sun Internal Multiplier	5-day Internal Multiplier	Delist Multiplier
Horrible Bosses 2	26/11/2014	4.3	3.1	6.2	6.1	3.1	22.8	2.50	3.68	2.1
Old Dogs	25/11/2009	3.1	4.2	6.9	6.7	3.3	24.2	2.45	7.69	1.80
In the Mix	23/11/2005	0.8	0.9	1.7	1.9	0.8	6.1	2.55	7.59	1.65
Just Friends	23/11/2005	1.9	2.1	3.6	3.6	1.9	13.2	2.52	6.96	2.23
Out Cold	21/11/2001	1.2	1.1	1.8	1.8	0.8	6.8	2.44	5.43	1.96
Black Knight	21/11/2001	1.9	2.4	4.4	4.5	2.2	15.4	2.52	8.22	1.93

This small selection is a mixed bag, so be cautious about inferring any general trends. That said, Out Cold and In The Mix were both duds with sub-$7 million openings. The other three movies had IMs of around 7 or above, but only Just Friends had some post-adjust success.

Here are the movies with horror/supernatural themes:

Movie	Release Date (Wide)	Wed Box Office ($M)	Thur Box Office ($M)	Fri Box Office ($M)	Sat Box Office ($M)	Sun Box Office ($M)	Opening Weekend ($M)	Fri-Sun Internal Multiplier	5-day Internal Multiplier	Delist Multiplier
Mist	21/11/2007	2.0	1.9	3.5	3.5	2.0	12.9	2.57	6.46	1.94
Haunted	26/11/2003	4.5	5.2	10.0	9.2	5.0	34.0	2.43	7.48	1.73
Unbreakable	22/11/2000	6.8	8.9	12.3	11.9	5.9	45.8	2.45	6.72	1.82

All three had five-day IMs in the 6.5 to 7.5 range, and none of them delisted above their adjust price.

Finally, here are the action movies released over Thanksgiving. Some of these are straight action, some are martial arts-heavy, some are sci-fi and there are even a couple of time travel movies in the mix, but I've lumped them all together.

Movie	Release Date (Wide)	Wed Box Office ($M)	Thur Box Office ($M)	Fri Box Office ($M)	Sat Box Office ($M)	Sun Box Office ($M)	Opening Weekend ($M)	Fri-Sun Internal Multiplier	5-day Internal Multiplier	Delist Multiplier
Homefront	27/11/2013	1.4	1.4	2.6	2.7	1.6	9.7	2.63	6.8	2.03
Red Dawn	21/11/2012	4.2	3.2	6.0	5.5	2.8	21.7	2.39	5.21	1.89
Faster	24/11/2010	1.6	1.9	3.2	3.5	1.8	12.0	2.64	7.50	1.87
Ninja Assassin	25/11/2009	3.3	4.6	5.6	4.9	2.8	21.2	2.36	6.39	1.72
Transporter 3	26/11/2008	3.3	2.8	4.8	4.7	2.5	18.2	2.49	5.48	1.70
Hitman	21/11/2007	4.4	3.5	5.2	4.9	3.0	21.1	2.51	4.78	1.81
Deja Vu	22/11/2006	3.5	4.5	8.2	8.1	4.2	28.6	2.50	8.10	2.02
Timeline	26/11/2003	1.9	2.1	3.5	3.3	1.7	12.4	2.44	6.43	1.52
Missing	26/11/2003	1.8	2.6	4.3	4.3	2.2	15.2	2.50	8.27	1.68
Spy Game	21/11/2001	3.8	5.1	8.4	8.7	4.6	30.6	2.57	8.00	1.89
End of Days	24/11/1999	5.2	6.1	8.5	7.9	4.6	32.3	2.47	6.25	1.79
Alien: Resurrection	26/11/1997	5.0	5.1	7.0	6.4	3.5	27.1	2.42	5.41	1.63

The movies with the highest five-day IMs - The Missing, Deja Vu and Spy Game - all have older stars and more appeal to older audiences. As with the adult dramas listed above, they all have five-day IMs of 7.5 or higher.

The lowest IMs are all for - let's face it - pretty stupid movies like Hitman, the Red Dawn remake, the third Transporter movie and Schwarzenegger's End of Days. Expect an IM in the 5 to 6.5 range. Alien Resurrection also had a very low IM, but that's probably because it was such a terrible and disappointing movie.

None of these movies did very well after delist. The only one to delist above adjust price was Deja Vu, and five out of the eleven delisted at 10% or more below adjust.

So what have we learned about movies released over Thanksgiving?

• animated movies have a wide range of five-day IMs - usually 5-6, but probably higher if the movie appeals to adults as well as children. Even though they are family movies, don't expect them to have strong legs in the lead-up to Christmas.
• live-action movies aimed at children have slightly higher five-day IMs of 7 or higher, but like their animated counterparts, do not generally have strong legs.
• movies about Christmas tend to have stronger legs than the average movie over the box office doldrums of early December.
• musicals can be front-loaded as the core audience turns out on opening night. Don't expect an IM above 6.
• dramas aimed at adults have very high five-day IMs of 7.5 or higher. Delists above adjust are actually probable, especially if the movie generates early award buzz.
• it's not a great weekend for comedies. Five day IMs of 7 or higher are probable, as are delists below adjust price.
• it's not a great weekend for horror/supernatural movies either. Expect a five-day IM in the 6.5-7.5 range and a delist below adjust.
• the weekend gets more than its fair share of action B-movies.  Expect five-day IMs of 7.5-8 for movies that appeal to older audiences and 5-6.5 for younger audiences. None of them are likely to delist above the adjust price.