Chart of the Week - SOCMP

Historically, hip-hop movies don't have great legs.  8MILE, which had a similar break-out $50M+ opening weekend, delisted at 72.3% of its adjust price. NOBIG managed 70.4%, GRODT ended up with 75.8%.  But expectations for SOCMP were different, given its cross-generational appeal and enthusiasm to see the N.W.A. story. How is SOCMP holding up?

As of its second Tuesday in release, SOCMP had earned 71.9% of its adjust price. (Note: this column calculates the adjust price using the actual box office rather than the Sunday estimates.  SOCMP was significantly underestimated, so the adjust price used here of $162.54 is greater than SOCMP's HSX adjust of $151.45)  This is far ahead of 8MILE (58.5%), NOBIG (63.5% and GRODT (64.3%).  It's also ahead of HUSTL (68.8%, delisted at 92%) and slightly behind RDLON (73.3%, delisted at 95.4%).  If SOCMP continues on this trend, it would delist at around 94.3% of its adjust price, or $153.28.

However, when we project SOMCP's future performance based on its past daily change, we get a less optimistic delist estimate of 86.8% of the adjust price, or $141.08.  Of the two predictions, I find this one the more plausible - SOCMP had a 56% drop in its second weekend, behind HUSTL (49.7% drop in its second, 37.7% in its third) and RDLON (48.7% in its second weekend, 43.5% in its third), and also behind last week's expectations.  Still, it will probably have a smaller third weekend drop than last weekend's 56% and if I was making a personal prediction, I would move that line up a little.

Also, MISS5 cashed out on Monday at $157.51 or 105.1% of its adjust price, slightly under the prediction of $160.39 (107%) and the daily change projection of $159.94 (106.7%).  Here's the chart.

Chart of the Week: FANT4 and WERDO

Box office observers were all prepped for a disappointing opening weekend from FANT4, but the movie still managed to throw under those low expectations.  Let's see how it has performed since, with comparisons against some other comic-book adaptation misfires.

As of its second Tuesday of release, FANT4 had earned 64% of its adjust price - just below GLANT (64.9% of adjust, delisted at 76.4%) but above FOUR2 (62.8%, delisted at 76.2%)  and SPID5 (61.5%, delisted at 74.8%).  Given its second weekend drop of 68.2%, I don't see FANT4 straying from this path, so I'll estimate it will delist at around 76% of its adjust price, or $52.71.

If we project FANT4's future performance based on its daily change to date, we get a similar prediction of a delist at 75.5% of the adjust price, or $52.36.

It seems like every week I'm comparing big budget comic book movies, so let's have a look at something different for a change.  WERDO is a low-budget thriller from a new distributor which on paper could easily have been a TV movie of the week.  But riding strong reviews and catering to a section of the audience that wanted to see something different, it beat expectations on opening weekend.

As of its second Tuesday in release, WERDO had earned 79.2% of its adjust price - a strong performance against comparisons such as PRSNS and TCALL, but not quite as strong as GONEG.  WERDO looks set to earn more than its adjust price, and I am going to estimate an eventual delist around the midpoint between the GONEG line and the PRSNS/TCALL lines. Let's say 108% of the adjust price, or H$34.57.

The projection based on past daily change has a slightly lower prediction of 107.5% of the adjust, or H$34.41.

Chart of the Week: MISS5

MISS5 had a decent opening weekend of $55.5 million, overcoming a few doubts in the weeks leading up to release. Fifth movies in a franchise are not known for their legs, but an older fan-base, an A- Cinemascore and maybe the best reviews of the series are all positive signs.  How have things worked out so far?

Obviously MISS5 was never expected to reach the post-adjust heights of MISS4, which opened over Christmas and also at the nadir of Cruise's popularity.  As of its second Tuesday, MISS5 has earned 77.1% of its adjust price, which is well above than the other (non-MISS4) movies in the franchise, better than (the non-summer) JB23 and slightly below AYNIK, another movie that audiences had to convince themselves to see despite Tom Cruise.  If MISS5 continues along this trend, it will delist at around 107% of its adjust price, or H$160.39.

And if we use the past daily change to predict future performance, we get a similar result of 106.7% of the adjust price, or H$159.94.

Let's check out the movies that have delisted since the last column.

MNION ended up delisting at H$287.58, a disappointing 92% of the adjust price - lower than every other comparison, even CARS2 at 92.6%.  This was some way below my prediction of $312.44 and much closer to the prediction based on daily percentage changes of $H284.32.

ANTMN did pretty well for a comic-book release, having slightly lower legs than last August's GOTGX and ahead of all the other Marvel movies.  The delist price of H$147.52 (95.5% of the adjust price) was slightly below my prediction of H$152.97 and extremely close to the prediction based on daily percentage changes of H$147.09.

TRWRC delisted at H$90.95, or 111.9% of its adjust price.  This put it around the same pace as SCOPR and ahead of movies like BDTCH and OTHRW, but well behind THEAT, BRDSM and even a non-summer movie like IDTHF.  Still, the obvious pattern is that comedies aimed at women over 25 tend to delist above their adjust price.

Compared to the HSXsanity predictions, my prediction of a H$95.07 was too optimistic and the daily percentage change prediction of H$91.66 was closer.

Charts of the Week: ANTMN and TRWRC

Despite their boosters and doubters, TRWRC and ANTMN proved to have fairly predictable opening weekends that were solid but not particular break-outs.  Let's see how they have been doing since then.

As of its second Tuesday of release, ANTMN had earned 73.7% of its adjust price.  This is almost on par with GOTGX (74%) and ahead of other Marvel films including the only other late summer release in the sample, CAPAM (70.9%).  If ANTMN continues on the same track as GOTGX, it should delist a touch below its adjust price - let's say 99%, of H$152.97.

I won't reproduce the chart here (too many this week), but if we project ANTMN's box office based on daily change, we get a lower delist estimate of 95.2% (or  H$147.09).

After a $30 million opening weekend, TRWRC was touted as having potential for BRDSM-style legs.  Earing 81.4% of its adjust price as of its second Tuesday in release, it has fallen well behind BRDSM (90.9%) - and also THEAT (87.7%) and TED (87.9%) - but is still doing respectably, and is running even with IDTHF and ahead of other comparables like SCOPR, OTHRW and BDTCH.  It should end up doing better than IDTHF - a non-summer movie with poor weekday earnings - which delisted at 115.2% of its adjust price so I'm going to predict a delist of around 117% or H$95.07.

The "projection based on past daily change" yields a lower prediction of 112.8% of the adjust price or $91.66

Earlier this week, TERM5 delisted at $85.68, 96.9% of its adjust price but ahead of the prediction of H$82.22 (93%).  This prediction was the result of a faulty formula in the spreadsheet (ooops!) but it probably turned out better than the prediction I would have made using the correct calculation. Here's the (corrected) chart.

MGCM2 ended up delisting at H$63.14, 126.9% of its adjust price and close to the stab-in-the-dark prediction of 125% (H$62.19). Here's the chart:

Chart of the Week: MNION

Taking $115.7 million, MNION had the summer's third-biggest opening weekend, and the biggest animated opening, eclipsing NMIND's $90.4 million. So far this summer we've seen big openers such as JURA4, NMIND and PTCP2 go on to have long legs, but is the same true of MNION?

As of MNION's second Tuesday of release, it has earned 73% of its adjust price.  This isn't so good compared with other movies such as the other Despicable Me films or Pixar/Ice Age Sequels.  It's between ICEA$ (76%, delisting at 105%) and ahead of CARS2 (71%, delisting at 93%).  Assuming MNION continues to perform in between these two films, it seems headed for a delist of around its adjust (based on actual box office) of $312.44.

However, if we project MNION's future performance from its daily percentage change, the outlook is even less rosy. Under this projection MNION will fall behind ICEA4 and even below CARS2 for a delist of 91% of its adjust price, or H$284.32.

Finally, TED2 ended up delisting at H$77.36 or 86% of its adjust price.  This was far lower than the original movie (123%) but also behind every other summer movie in the comparison, even MWTDW. It was also very close to the week 2 prediction of $77.80, but lower than the prediction based on daily change of H$87.80 or 90% of the adjust price. Here's the chart.

Chart of the Week: MGCM2 and TERM5

MGCM2 and TERM5 both underwhelmed over the July 4 weekend. Two sequels with lower-than-expected opening weekends should be pretty straightforward for the Chart of the Week, right?

Well, it turns out that I can't phone in a column that says "sequels have terrible legs", because look at the chart for MGCM2. As of its second Wednesday MGCM2 had grossed 106% of its adjust price - well ahead of comparable movies such as MGCMK, SEXCT and SATC2, and even long-legged comedies aimed at women like OTHRW and THEAT.  Part of the reason is due to the combination of a Wednesday (well, Tuesday night) opening and the July 4 weekend, which made for a low weekend and a high "box office to date as a % of the adjust" calculation.  The also movie held very well in its second weekend, and if it were to keep up the same pattern of daily change (chart not included) would delist at 132% of its adjust price, or around H$65.67.

However, I'm not convinced that MGCM2's legs will be as strong as THEAT in its third and fourth weekends, so I am guesstimating a lower delist of around 125% of the adjust, or H$62.19.

TERM5 is behaving more predictably, having earned 76% of its adjust price by its second Wednesday.  This puts is above its predecessors TERM3 and TERM4, and on a path somewhere in between TFRM3 (note the F) and PACRM, which delisted at 95% and 94% of their respective adjust prices.  Splitting the difference at 93% of an adjust, we get a predicted delist of H$82.22.  However, if we use past daily changes to predict the delist (again, chart not shown), we get a slightly higher prediction of 95% of the adjust price or H$83.99.

NMIND delisted on Monday at H$284.20, putting it about midway between my prediction of H$278.38 and the prediction extrapolated from performance to date of $H$290.48. It did better than the average Pixar movie, beating TOYS3 and BRAVE among others, but did not reach the heights of RATUL and UP. Here's the chart:

Chart of the Week: TED2

Ted 2 fell foul of lazy sequel prediction.  When it opened less than two weeks ago, no one was saying anything less than a high-forties opening. But the reality turned out to be low-30s.  Nevertheless, summer releases typically have strong legs, with June and July releases - on average - delisting above their adjust price.  So is TED2 able to play catch-up, or is it still an unwanted sequel?

Here's the comparison of box office up to the second Wednesday of release. So far, TED2 has earned 71% of its adjust price at the box office, trailing the original movie (91%). It's also trailing well-received movies like WSEND (80%), 21JS2 (79%) and NEIBR (74%).  More disturbingly, it's also training terrible movies like TMBOY (86%) and MWTDW (73%). The only one it is ahead of is DUMB3 (64%), another sequel that nobody asked for that is also a non-summer movie.

 The two closest tracks seem to be NEIBR and MWTDW, but after a 66.7% drop in its second weekend I don't see TED2 having a strong third weekend like NEIBR did. I expect it will delist a couple of points below MWTDW's 89%.  Let's say 86%, which estimates a delist of H$77.80.

I'm not sure that anyone cares about TED2's delist - at least, compared to JURA4 - but if we use its daily change history to predict its future box office, we actually end up with a delist at 90% of the adjust price, or H$81.80.

JURA4 ended up delisting at $556.54, equivalent to 99% of its adjust price (when using actual #s rather than Sunday estimates). This was slightly below the second-week estimate of $563.78, and very close to the projection of $558.14 using the daily change history prediction method.

Chart of the Week: NMIND

Non-sequel Pixar films have typically opened in the $60-$70 million range, but NMIND exceeded expectations with a massive $90 million opening weekend, the second-best ever after Toy Story 3.  So is NMIND acting like other Pixar films, or is it continuing to break the mould?

The chart compares NMIND's performance against other Pixar movies. As of its second Tuesday, NMIND had earned box office equivalent to 82% of its adjust price - slightly above long-legged movies like BRAVE and UP, slightly below the less-legged MONS2 and equivalent to TOYS3.

If NMIND continues to track TOYS3, it will delist at 114% of its adjust price or $278.38.  That seems to be the midpoint of expectations.  Looking at the worst-case scenario, which would see NMIND run out of steam and follow a MONS2's path, it will delist at 107% of its adjust price, or $261.28.  And at the higher-end of expectations, if NMIND were to remain ahead of UP's trajectory it would delist somewhere north of $300.

Judgment call time. I don't see NMIND following the MONS2 route, given that it's a non-sequel and has superlative reviews.  However, the UP scenario isn't compelling either. UP came out in late May, before school holidays in many states had started.  This would explain why it is lagging NMIND (and other Pixar films) for now, but has a surge in the third and fourth weeks of release.  This is not a factor for NMIND, given its late June release date. I lean towards the TOYS3 scenario, so $278.38 is my final guess.

Let's see what happens if we extrapolate NMIND's future performance from its past daily percentage changes:

Under this model, NMIND surges ahead of TOYS3 in its third weekend, but doesn't quite catch UP.  This projection predicts a delist of 119% of the adjust price, or $290.48.

Finally let's check in on where SCOPR ended up. It delisted at $88.46, 113% of its adjust price and well ahead of the $81.67 predicted after its second Thursday, and also the $84.81 that was projected its the daily change. Here's the chart:

Chart of the Week: JURA4

This is the one we've been waiting for: JURA4.  Not content with being the biggest opener of all time, JURA4 has ignored the "sequels open bigger and have shorter legs" rule with strong weekdays and a 49 per cent drop in its second weekend.  There's no doubt that JURA4 is defying the odds, but how does it compare against other mega-openers?

The chart below compares JURA4 against the last two Jurassic Park movies, the last two Batman movies (currently #6 and #7 all time), both Avengers movies (before JURA4, the two biggest openers ever) and Guardians of the Galaxy (which opened a lot lower, but turned out to be *the* movie to see last summer).

As you can see, JURA4 is tracking well ahead of the other Jurassic sequels and is following a similar pattern as the two best performers - BATM2 and GOTGX - which delisted at 100% and 99% of adjust price respectively.  Let's keep it simple and estimate that JURA4 will delist at its adjust price exactly, $563.78.  Also, a reminder that the "adjust" in this column is calculated using the moviestock's actual weekend numbers ($208,806,270) rather then the weekend estimate of $204,596,000)

Let's look forward to the delist using that method outlined in last week's SCOPR column.  If JURA4 has the same daily changes in future as it has had over the past week, it will continues to track BATM2 pretty closely, and will end even with GOTGX at 99% of the adjust price - $558.14. Not much different really, but since I should make a prediction I'll go with the higher one.

SANDR delisted this week at $132.70, ahead of my pessimistic prediction that it would track closer to HERCL for a  $125.30 delist. In fact, despite the huge opening and strong legs shown by JURA4, SANDR continued to track closely to CATE6 and delisted almost exactly at that path's prediction of $132.68.  So maybe competition - even against a similar genre movie that also happens to be the biggest opener ever - doesn't matter that much?  Anyway, here's the chart.

Chart of the Week: SCOPR

Given the past performance of Melissa McCarthy movies and the overwhelmingly positive reviews, SCOPR underperformed with its opening weekend take of $29.1 million. But is word of mouth giving the movie legs, or is it continuing to underperform?

Here is the chart for SCOPR's box office to date, compared with other Melissa McCarthy movies - TAMMY, THEAT, IDTHF and BRDSM - as well as BDTCH (summer comedy aimed at adult women), LBCOP (same, but for younger man) and the reviled MALC2.

As of SCOPR's second Wednesday, it has earned 79% per cent of its adjust price, well behind IDTHF (84%), THEAT (91%) and even TAMMY (89%). Don't even think of comparing it against BRDSM. So far, its performance looks a lot closer to BDTCH, which delisted at 104% of its adjust price. If SCOPR continues on the same path, it will delist at H$81.67.

However, I'm going to experiment with something new this week, by seeing what happens if we apply the day-to-day percentage change so far to plot SCOPR's future adjust. So, we look at the box office of SCOPR's first Thursday compared against its first Wednesday, and apply that number to SCOPR's second Wednesday to estimate its second Thursday, and then do similar for the second Friday, the second Saturday and so on until SCOPR is due to delist.  Here's the result:

This calculation suggests a higher delist, at 108% of the adjust price or around $84.81.  Personally, I lean towards the lower delist of $81.67 because day-to-day patterns do change in later weeks as movies lose screens and audiences lose interest. But we'll test this out for the next few weeks and see if it provides better delist estimates than the comparison method.

Finally, it's time to check in on 1952, which delisted at $83.68 (89% of the adjust price) and lower than my estimate of 92% of the adjust / H$86.38 (though it would have been 100% accurate with a simple transposition). Pretty terrible legs for a family movie. Here's the chart:

Chart of the Week: SANDR

SANDR had a far huger opening weekend that anyone expected, grossing $54.6 million and proving that there's always a market for disaster movies, especially in the places that are being destroyed.  There haven't been too many disaster films in recent years - CATE6 was the most recent, but it was a box office disappointment. More successful movies like WWARZ and GODZL feature lots of destruction, but they also have a monster aspect that puts them in a separate genre. We have to go all the way back to Roland Emmerich movies to come up with examples of over-the-top disaster movies played straight, like 2012S and TOMOR.  I've also included a couple of other movies starring Dwayne Johnson - HERCL and GIJO2 - just for comparison's sake.

So far, SANDR is tracking very closely to CATE6, which delisted at 91% of its adjust price - or 90%, if you take out its extra day of box office. That would suggest an eventual delist of $132.68, but I expect SANDR will see a bigger drop this weekend due to the opening of JURA4 given the sizeable overlap in audience.  This would mean its chart might end up looking more like HERCL and 2012S, which both delisted at 85% of their adjust prices.  Applying this calculation to SANDR yields a delist prediction of $125.30.  I don't want to be the guy who says "Toldja it would delist between $125 and 133 - nailed it!", so I'll go with the lower prediction.

Also, let's check in on the recent delists.  Here is the chart for PTCP2, which had a slightly weaker-than-expected performance after its second week and ended up delisting at 160.85 - 86% of its adjust price and under my estimate of $165.20.

MMAX4 delisted at $130.67 - 107% of its adjust price, and under the Week 2 estimate of $133.23.  I'll make a note to reduce all future delist estimates by 1 per cent.

Chart of the Week: 1952

Tomorrowland - which fell victim to the "HSX ticker symbol wasn't updated for the new movie name" curse - is a difficult movie to figure out.  If I can steal from another poster on the boards, there aren't many "humourless disappointing non-sequel original sci-fi" movies designed to appeal to families that make good comparisons.  Add in that 1952 opened on a 4-day weekend and therefore has a bigger Monday, and it makes finding the right comparisons just that little bit harder.

So, the movies I am comparing with 1952 are a mixed bag.  I have chosen DVRGN and DVRG2 (young adult sci-fi, female protagonist), NMUS2 and PRSIA (Memorial Day weekend openers, aimed at families but sequel/adaptation), EPIC (same, but animated), OZTGP (fantasy, family but non-summer) and SUPR8 (sci-fi, but aimed at boys more than girls).

Here is the chart:

As of Thursday 1952 is slightly ahead of OZTGP and well ahead of the Divergent movies, but behind the other Memorial Day openers of PRSIA, EPIC and NMUS2.

However, thanks to the column being a little late this week we can look a little further ahead by taking the Friday estimates and using the daily per cent changes from 1952's second weekend to predict what its performance will look like after its third weekend of release:

Using this method, we get a weekend estimate of $8.1 million, and we can also see that under this prediction 1952 slips very slightly behind OZTGP. So it's probably not going to catch PRSIA or NMUS2 and will likely delist around the same level as OZTGP or slightly lower.

OZTGP delisted at 93 per cent of its adjust price, but based on my projected outcome of 1952's third weekend I'm leaning towards "slightly lower", so let's go with 92%.  Applying that prediction to 1952, we get a delist estimate of $86.38.

Charts of the Week: PTCP2 and MMAX4

Two movies had bigger than expected openings on the pre-Memorial Day weekend. PTCP2 had a huge $70 million opening, well above even the most optimistic predictions. MMAX4 was no slouch either, opening to $44 million, well above some of the more dire predictions made in the weeks before Mad Max hype got going. But do these movies actually have legs, or are they one week wonders?

Let's start with PTCP2. As you may have guessed, there aren't many a capella club comedies aimed at younger women to compare besides the original movie, which delisted at (more or less) the same price as its adjust. Other movies I've selected as comparisons are successful comedies aimed at younger audiences (21JS2 and NEIBR) or women (OTHRW) and dramas and fairy tale movies aimed at women (TFIOS, MALEF and CINDE).  From the chart, PTCP2 is tracking closest to CINDE at the moment, though that's probably in part due to the Memorial Day boost PTCP2 had, and maybe it will end up closer to TFIOS.

CINDE delisted at 91% of its adjust price and TFIOS delisted at 85%. To predict PTCP2's delist, let's split the difference with a little favouritism towards the TFIOS figure and predict a delist at 87% of its adjust price - $165.20 in H$ terms.

Switching over to MMAX4, the movie also got a boost from having four days in its second weekend of release, and it is currently trending ahead of AYNIK and TSSRV, which both delisted slightly above their adjust price. The movie certainly doesn't look like it's going to drop off the way other reboots/sequels like PROME, TREK2 and GODZL.  AYNIK delisted at 108.6% of its adjust price, and if MMAX4 were to do the same it would cash out at H$133.23. 

Finally, let's check in on where AVNG2 ended up. As you can't really see - because the AVNG2 line completely blocks it out - the sequel tracked IRNM3 pretty closely and delisted at H$411.87, 80% of its adjust price and slightly under the H$413 estimate made after its second weekend. It's nice to have one of these come out accurately.

Chart of the week: AVNG2

After a week off due to no big movies, let's have a look at what is likely to be the biggest movie of the year - no matter how disappointed we are that it didn't have a $250 opening weekend and give us all enough cha-ching to last the rest of the summer.

Obviously, AVNG2 will be compared against other Marvel movies - in particular those that opened on the first weekend in May and delisted after the Memorial Day weekend, earning that one extra day of box office.  Here's the chart:

Up until now, AVNG2 has been following the same path as IRNM2 and IRNM3. So much so that you can barely see them under the AVNG2 line.  It's well behind the first Avengers movie, the first Iron Man movie and the first Thor movie. GOTGX is the clear winner, but that opened later in summer when kids were out of school and weekday audiences were bigger.

The Iron Man sequels delisted at 79% and 81% of their respective adjust prices, so let's split the difference say 80%. If AVNG2 continues to follow this path, it would be on track for a delist of $413.14.

While we're here, let's check in to see where MALC2 ended up.

As you can see, it utterly collapsed after its second weekend.  It dropped 60% in weekend 3 - the same weekend AVNG2 opened - but as you can see, it barely earned anything over the previous weekdays, and JAJIL had caught up to it by the third Friday.  MALC2 eventually finished with a delist of $58.19, well below the $67.50 it looked headed for after its second week.

Chart of the Week: MALC2

We are only four months into the year, but 2015 has already seen several sequels that no one asked for.  The most successful by far is Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, which on the date of release, the movie had a 0 per cent rating at Rotten Tomatoes (though as of writing, that rating has inched up to 6%). So how is it doing after a two weekends of release?

Here is MALC2's box office to date as a % of its adjust, compared with other movies that have Kevin James as the lead (the original MALCP, ZOOKP and HCTBM), or a co-star (GRWN2) and some other movies from the Adam Sandler stable (BLEND, TMBOY and JAJIL).

The first thing to note is that some lines are bumpy, with big increases on the weekends but slow performance on the weekdays (MALCP, HCTBM and JAJIL).  Others are comparatively smooth (ZOOKP, BLEND, GRWN2 and TMBOY) with stronger weekdays.  This is probably due to the time of year the movies are in cinemas.  The four smooth movies were all released over summer, when kids are out of school which expanded the weekday audience.  MALCP, HCTBM and JAJIL were released in January, October and November respectively, so their box office was focussed on the weekend.  MALC2, an April release, is following that same bumpy trend.

The second observation is that as a group, these movies had rather strong legs. Five of them delisted above their adjust price, and the two that didn't - TMBOY with 99% and JAJIL with 95% - just fell short. So even though these movies are universally reviled - HCTBM has the highest RT score of 38%, and GRWN2 and JAJIL have scores in the single-digits - they still do well at attracting audiences beyond the opening weekend.

So far, MALC2 is tracking behind all these movies but JAJIL. Its box office earnings up to its second Tuesday of release were equivalent to 70% of its adjust price, in between HCTBM and MALCP (76% at the same point in their theatrical run) and JAJIL (64%).  If this trend continues, look for MALC2 to delist at the midpoint of around 103% of its adjust price - around $67.50.

Finally to follow up on FAST7, it delisted on Monday at $320.08, below the week 2 prediction of $327.86. Way shorter legs than MALC2.  Here's the final chart:

Chart of the Week: Furious 7 Revisited

Just a quick update on FAST7, which since last week has trended a lot more like FFUR5 than FAST6.  If this trend continues, expect the movie to delist under the prediction made last week.

Here is the chart, including box office up to and including Monday, April 21.

Chart of the Week: Furious 7

Being the seventh entry in a franchise known for being front-loaded, Furious 7 shouldn't have expectations for a high delist. However, this outing is the most popular yet with an enormous opening weekend, an A rating on Cinemascore, 81% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and no competition until its fourth weekend.  Does this mean FAST7 has legs?

Here is Furious 7's performance up until Monday, 13 April compared with all the previous Fast and Furious movies:

The first movie was the best performing of the lot - nearly delisting at its adjust price, even though it had a 2.9 multiplier.  FFUR2 had shorter legs, as sequels generally do, but FFUR3 had a better post-adjust performance which is surprising given that it was completely re-cast.  The original cast reunion in FFUR4 had the worst legs out of the franchise, but FFUR5 - when the franchise became more about heists than street-racing - did better with a delist at 80% of its adjust price, and FAST6, a Memorial Day release did even better, delisting at 85.3% of its adjust price.

Right now, FAST7 is tracking about halfway between the fifth and sixth movies and if it stays on this course it will delist at around 82.5% of its adjust - which would be H$327.86.

Next week we'll be checking back on FAST7 to see if this trend continues.

Chart of the Week - Introduction

HSXsanity has been on hiatus for a while, mostly because I ran out of simple HSX questions to answer. It's time to try something new, and starting this week I'll be road-testing a new feature - charts that compare the box office for movies currently in theatres against some comparable movies.

There are a few different ways to compare box office over the time between opening weekend and delist - comparing the actual box office numbers, comparing delist multipliers, or comparing the daily or weekly percentage changes - but I have decided to compare the cumulative box office as a percentage of the adjust price.  I've chosen this method because it allows comparisons of movies that have different adjust multipliers, and it results in charts that are easy to follow.

I'll be calculating the adjust price with the multiplier used by HSX at the time of adjust, as follows:

• for movies released after January 2009 - normal weekends have a multiplier of 2.7 * Fri-Sun (+ Previous if appropriate), holiday weekends of 2.2 * Fri-Mon, Thanksgiving of 2.0 * Wed-Sun and limiteds expanding into wide of Previous + 3.0 * Fri-Sun.  Most movies used as comparisons will fall in this group; 
• for movies released between September 2004 and December 2008 - normal weekends use the 2.8 multiplier (+ Previous if appropriate), holiday weekends of 2.4 * Fri-Mon, Thanksgiving of 2.3 * Wed-Sun;
• for movies released before September 2004 - - normal weekends use the 2.9 multiplier (+ Previous if appropriate), holiday weekends of 2.5 * Fri-Mon, Thanksgiving of 2.3 * Wed-Sun.

Also, I'll be calculating adjust prices using the actual box office rather than the weekend estimates.  This is because tracking both estimates and actuals seems like unnecessary duplication, though it also means the adjust prices used in these charts will differ from the HSX adjust price.

The charts I'll publish in the weeks to come will focus on the movies I think will have the most interest to casual traders - so movies that have had a big opening weekend, movies that look like having longer than usual legs and movies with an unusual box office performance.  If there's a particular movie you'd like to see represented in a chart, leave a comment here or a reply when they are posted in the Players & Strategy Board.