Memorial Day weekend is the first holiday weekend of the summer, and one of the biggest box office events of the year. The movies released on this date are often the highest-profile releases by a studio for the summer, although in recent years it has been eclipsed as bigger and bigger movies open earlier in May.
Memorial Day weekend is a four day weekend, and films released over the weekend will have their adjust on Monday instead of the usual Sunday. The adjust is calculated from the following formula:
Friday-to-Monday box office (in millions) * 2.2
Having a 4 day figure adds, on average, 25% to the three day Friday-to-Sunday figure.
This column will look at the movies that have been released on Memorial Day weekend over the last fifteen years by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers.
Because Memorial Day is all about big-budget action/adventure releases that are supposed to appeal to all four quadrants (but to men more than women and people under 25 more than older), let's start with those movies:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Midnight
Box Office |
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Mission Impossible 1
|
24/05/1996
|
0.00
|
18.1
|
13.1
|
56.47
|
$18,750
|
4.30
|
2.25
|
Jurassic Park 2 - Lost World
|
23/05/1997
|
0.00
|
2.6
|
21.6
|
90.16
|
$27,480
|
4.17
|
2.09
|
Godzilla
|
22/05/1998
|
0.00
|
18.5
|
12.5
|
55.73
|
$16,836
|
4.46
|
1.89
|
Mission Impossible 2
|
24/05/2000
|
0.00
|
21.0
|
16.5
|
70.82
|
$19,386
|
4.30
|
2.20
|
Pearl Harbor
|
25/05/2001
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
18.7
|
75.18
|
$23,383
|
4.02
|
2.13
|
Day After Tomorrow
|
28/05/2004
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
23.5
|
85.81
|
$25,053
|
3.65
|
1.95
|
X-Men 3 - Last Stand
|
26/05/2006
|
5.90
|
0.0
|
45.1
|
122.86
|
$33,296
|
2.72
|
1.76
|
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 -
End of the World
|
25/05/2007
|
3.00
|
13.2
|
42.9
|
139.80
|
$32,050
|
3.26
|
1.87
|
Indiana Jones 4
|
23/05/2008
|
4.50
|
25.0
|
30.6
|
126.92
|
$29,793
|
4.15
|
1.98
|
Terminator 4 - Salvation
|
22/05/2009
|
0.00
|
13.4
|
14.8
|
51.94
|
$14,926
|
3.51
|
1.94
|
Prince of Persia
|
28/05/2010
|
0.50
|
0.0
|
10.2
|
37.81
|
$10,371
|
3.70
|
2.14
|
Men in Black 3
|
25/05/2012
|
1.55
|
0.0
|
17.7
|
69.25
|
$16,303
|
3.92
|
2.21
|
Fast and Furious 6
|
24/05/2014
|
6.5
|
0.0
|
38.7
|
117.0
|
$31,995
|
3.02
|
1.88
|
X-Men 5 – Days of Future Past
|
23/05/2014
|
8.1
|
0.0
|
35.5
|
110.6
|
$27,672
|
3.11
|
1.87
|
There have been some big Memorial Day weekend successes, with three movies taking well over $100 million for the 4-day. However, in box office history terms, that is long, long ago. We haven't seen an action/adventure type movie take anywhere near that amount in five years.
Also, there have been some big disappointments on this weekend. The average per screen average is above $22K, but several releases - such as Terminator 4 and Prince of Persia - have scored well below that mark. Opening on Memorial Day is not as foolproof as it used to be - a big Memorial Day movie used to be the only game in town, but now they face stiffer competition from the early May openers.
The average delist multiplier for these movies is 2.03, or 1.98 is you only look at the last decade, and none of them have delisted anything but marginally above the adjust price. Even movies with solid IMs for the weekend delisted below adjust. So on average you can expect an 8 per cent gain (when commission is factored in) from a post-adjust short.
Memorial Day weekend has also had seem the debut of some very successful comedies:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Midnight
Box Office |
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Shanghai Noon
|
26/05/2000
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
4.2
|
19.65
|
$7,247
|
4.70
|
2.44
|
Bruce Almighty
|
23/05/2003
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
20.1
|
85.73
|
$24,615
|
4.26
|
2.26
|
Longest Yard
|
27/05/2005
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
16.2
|
58.61
|
$16,129
|
3.62
|
2.25
|
Hangover 2
|
27/05/2011
|
10.40
|
31.6
|
30.0
|
103.43
|
$28,610
|
3.45
|
1.95
|
Hangover 3
|
24/05/2014
|
3.1
|
11.8
|
14.5
|
50.3
|
$14,138
|
3.47
|
1.91
|
This is a smaller sample to look at, but there are broadly similar patterns to the action/adventure movies listed above. There have been some big successes, with two of the four taking well over $20K per screen. The older movies have big IMs, but in recent years, the average IM has fallen to around 3.5.
However, unlike the action/adventure movies, all of the comedies have delisted above their adjust price - with the exception of Hangover 2, which was derided for being the same movie as the first one except in Thailand.
Memorial Day weekend gets family movies too. Here are the family movies with Memorial Day weekend premieres:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Spirit: Stallion of the
Cimarron
|
24/05/2002
|
0.0
|
4.6
|
23.21
|
$6,998
|
5.07
|
2.74
|
Madagascar 1
|
27/05/2005
|
0.0
|
13.9
|
61.01
|
$14,146
|
4.37
|
2.41
|
Night at the Museum 2 -
Smithsonian
|
22/05/2009
|
0.0
|
15.6
|
54.17
|
$13,226
|
3.48
|
2.65
|
Kung Fu Panda 2
|
27/05/2011
|
5.8
|
13.1
|
60.87
|
$15,509
|
4.65
|
2.26
|
The last three have all performed in the range of $13-$16K per screen, and anything performing above that level would be a surprise. As you would expect from family movies with low Fridays and high weekend matinee attendances, the IMs are higher than the other movies we have looked at so far. The movie with the lowest IM is also the only live-action movie on the list.
All of these movies had legs beyond the weekend and delisted above their adjust price - in three out of the four cases, well above. However, the lowest delist multiplier was also the most recent one - and a sequel.
Not many high profile releases on this weekend are targeted at women - there have been only two in the last fifteen years - but sometimes the studios will offer something to female audiences as counter-programming.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Midnight
Box Office |
Previous Box Office ($M)
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Notting
Hill
|
28/05/1999
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
6.5
|
27.69
|
$10,080
|
4.25
|
2.88
|
Enough
|
24/05/2002
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
4.5
|
17.21
|
$6,562
|
3.78
|
2.16
|
In-Laws
|
23/05/2003
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
9.22
|
$3,478
|
4.58
|
2.10
|
Raising
Helen
|
28/05/2004
|
0.00
|
0.0
|
3.5
|
14.24
|
$5,241
|
4.02
|
2.43
|
Sex and
the City 2
|
28/05/2010
|
3.00
|
14.2
|
12.9
|
36.84
|
$10,692
|
2.85
|
2.06
|
Best
Ever Marigold Hotel
|
25/05/2012
|
0.00
|
10.2
|
1.7
|
6.38
|
$5,177
|
3.82
|
3.92
|
Sex and the City 2 - which had an avid fan-base, opened before the weekend, and was a movie to see on Friday night - had by far the lowest IM of the group. The other movies all achieved an IM in the range of 3.8-4.2.
The delist multipliers vary greatly, from 3.92 for Best Ever Marigold Hotel, which attracted older audiences, to 2.06 for Sex and the City 2, a franchise movie with an excited fan-base.
Speaking of counter-programming, here are some other movies released on the Memorial Day weekend for just that reason.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Midnight
Box Office |
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Soul
Plane
|
28/05/2004
|
0.00
|
1.9
|
7.01
|
$4,476
|
3.64
|
1.96
|
Dance
Flick
|
22/05/2009
|
0.00
|
3.9
|
12.62
|
$5,152
|
3.21
|
1.91
|
Chernobyl
Diaries
|
25/05/2012
|
0.55
|
3.5
|
9.36
|
$3,845
|
2.65
|
1.89
|
Soul Plane and Dance Flick were both aimed at African-American audiences. Both probably exceeded their box office expectations with around $5K per screen, but still delisted more than 10 per cent below the adjust price. Chernobyl Diaries was aimed at teenagers and horror fans, and even had midnight showings. It also had the lowest IM of any Memorial Day release.
To finish off, some movies that don't really fit into any of the other categories, and are really included here for completeness. This movie was reasonably high-profile and aimed at box office success:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Insomnia
|
24/05/2002
|
6.0
|
26.07
|
$9,988
|
4.32
|
2.24
|
While these films close to being art-house projects and attracted a limited audience:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Friday Box Office ($M)
|
Opening Weekend ($M)
|
Per Screen Average
|
Internal Multiplier
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Fear and
Loathing in Las Vegas
|
22/05/1998
|
1.1
|
4.41
|
$1,418
|
3.88
|
2.23
|
Bug
|
25/05/2007
|
1.1
|
4.02
|
$2,418
|
3.71
|
1.74
|
So what have we learned about Memorial Day weekend openers?
- expect the big blockbustery action/adventure movies to have an IM of around 3.5, and to delist about 10 per cent below their adjust price
- don't assume that just because a big budget movie is coming out on Memorial Day weekend that it will be successful. There have been several high-profile disappointments in recent years
- expect big comedies to have a similar IM of 3.5, but to perform better after delist. Except maybe if they are particularly awful, unoriginal sequels
- family movies will have higher IMs somewhere in the 4-5 range, and in general will be a post-adjust long
- movies targeted at women can expect an IM of around 4, though delist varies depending on exactly what type of movie it is.
No comments:
Post a Comment