July 4 is a big summer holiday in the United States, and a prime opening spot for big movie releases. Ever since Independence Day broke box office records in 1996, you can generally count on at least one movie being released in theatres where some iconic American landmark is somehow crushed, shattered or exploded.
But as people often have other things planned for July 4, movies generally don't open on that date. It's more common for movies to open mid-week, before the July 4 weekend, which gives people more opportunities to show up at theatres but plays hell with making box office predictions. This is because movies that open mid-week around July 4 will adjust by the usual formula for mid-week releases of:
Friday-to-Monday box office (in millions) * 2.7 + weekday box office
This column will look at the movies that have been released on the July 4 weekend since 1996 by genre, highlighting their per screen average gross and their internal and delist multipliers.
Let's look first at the big-budget blockbusters that have opened around this time. Here are the raw box office data. July 4 is highlighted in bold and underlined.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Release Day
|
Monday ($M)
|
Tuesday
($M)
|
Wednesday ($M)
|
Thursday ($M)
|
Friday ($M)
|
Saturday ($M)
|
Sunday ($M)
|
Monday ($M)
|
Tuesday
($M)
|
Lone Ranger
|
03/07/2013
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
9.7
|
9.9
|
10.6
|
10.7
|
7.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Amazing Spider-Man
|
03/07/2012
|
Tuesday
|
0.9
|
35.0
|
23.3
|
15.8
|
20.5
|
23.7
|
17.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Transformers 1
|
03/07/2007
|
Tuesday
|
8.8
|
27.9
|
29.1
|
19.2
|
22.7
|
25.7
|
22.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Men in Black
|
01/07/1997
|
Tuesday
|
0.0
|
4.8
|
14.0
|
14.2
|
15.7
|
20.2
|
15.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Independence Day
|
02/07/1996
|
Tuesday
|
0.0
|
11.1
|
17.4
|
17.3
|
17.7
|
17.9
|
14.6
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Transformers 3
|
29/06/2011
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
5.5
|
37.7
|
21.5
|
33.0
|
34.5
|
30.4
|
18.0
|
0.0
|
Twilight 3 - Eclipse
|
30/06/2010
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
68.5
|
24.2
|
28.2
|
23.4
|
13.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Public Enemies
|
01/07/2009
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
8.2
|
6.7
|
10.2
|
6.8
|
8.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Hancock
|
01/07/2008
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
6.8
|
17.4
|
17.1
|
18.5
|
25.8
|
18.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Superman Returns
|
27/06/2006
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
3.0
|
18.0
|
11.0
|
16.3
|
18.4
|
17.8
|
12.4
|
9.0
|
War of the Worlds
|
29/06/2005
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
21.3
|
14.4
|
21.9
|
23.2
|
19.8
|
12.2
|
0.0
|
Spider-Man 2
|
30/06/2004
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
40.4
|
23.8
|
32.5
|
33.7
|
22.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Terminator 3
|
01/07/2003
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
4.0
|
12.4
|
11.9
|
13.0
|
17.7
|
13.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Men in Black 2
|
03/07/2002
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
18.6
|
16.5
|
19.8
|
18.5
|
13.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Patriot
|
28/06/2000
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
5.0
|
4.3
|
6.9
|
8.6
|
7.0
|
6.9
|
5.9
|
Wild Wild West
|
30/06/1999
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
7.1
|
6.2
|
9.6
|
10.8
|
7.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Armageddon
|
01/07/1998
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
9.7
|
8.4
|
13.6
|
10.5
|
11.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Last Airbender
|
01/07/2010
|
Thursday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
17.5
|
16.6
|
14.4
|
9.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Perfect Storm
|
30/06/2000
|
Friday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
13.2
|
14.8
|
13.3
|
2.1
|
1.4
|
And here are some calculations based off that data:
Movie
|
Weekday Box Office ($M)
|
Weekend Box Office ($M)
|
Total Box Office ($M)
|
Days of Box Office Before
Adjust
|
Total IM (based on opening
day)
|
Weekend IM (based on Friday)
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/ Adjust Multiplier
|
Lone Ranger
|
19.5
|
29.2
|
48.7
|
5
|
5.02
|
2.75
|
2.25
|
86.7%
|
Amazing Spider-Man
|
75.0
|
62.0
|
137.02
|
6
|
3.91
|
3.03
|
2.69
|
99.8%
|
Transformers 1
|
84.9
|
70.5
|
155.41
|
6
|
5.58
|
3.11
|
2.83
|
100.8%
|
Men in Black
|
33.1
|
51.1
|
84.13
|
6
|
5.99
|
3.25
|
3.15
|
107.1%
|
Independence Day
|
45.9
|
50.2
|
96.10
|
6
|
8.64
|
2.83
|
3.53
|
116.5%
|
Transformers 3
|
64.8
|
97.9
|
162.62
|
5
|
4.31
|
2.97
|
2.67
|
99.0%
|
Twilight 3 - Eclipse
|
92.7
|
64.8
|
157.58
|
5
|
2.30
|
2.30
|
2.89
|
104.5%
|
Public Enemies
|
14.9
|
25.3
|
40.14
|
5
|
4.92
|
2.49
|
2.90
|
106.2%
|
Hancock
|
41.3
|
62.6
|
103.88
|
5
|
5.97
|
3.38
|
2.64
|
95.3%
|
Superman Returns
|
32.1
|
52.5
|
84.59
|
5
|
4.69
|
3.22
|
2.78
|
99.5%
|
War of the Worlds
|
35.7
|
64.9
|
100.56
|
5
|
4.73
|
2.96
|
2.66
|
95.9%
|
Spider-Man 2
|
64.3
|
88.2
|
152.41
|
5
|
3.77
|
2.72
|
3.00
|
102.7%
|
Terminator 3
|
28.3
|
44.0
|
72.39
|
5
|
5.82
|
3.38
|
2.48
|
88.1%
|
Men in Black 2
|
35.1
|
52.1
|
87.24
|
5
|
4.69
|
2.63
|
2.65
|
93.1%
|
Patriot
|
9.3
|
22.4
|
31.73
|
5
|
6.33
|
3.27
|
3.75
|
125.7%
|
Wild Wild West
|
13.3
|
27.7
|
40.96
|
5
|
5.79
|
2.90
|
3.28
|
111.3%
|
Armageddon
|
18.1
|
36.1
|
54.20
|
5
|
5.61
|
2.65
|
3.64
|
121.8%
|
Last Airbender
|
17.5
|
40.3
|
57.84
|
4
|
3.30
|
2.43
|
2.62
|
97.6%
|
Perfect Storm
|
0.0
|
41.3
|
41.33
|
3
|
3.12
|
3.12
|
3.52
|
121.3%
|
The first thing to note is that only one of these blockbuster releases - Perfect Storm - was released on a Friday. Every other movie got a mid-week release, and some of them (such as Transformers and Superman Returns) had limited previews before their official release date.
Looking at the total internal multipliers (that is, a movie's box office over the weekday + weekend periods divided by the movie's opening day box office), the highest IMs occurred long, long ago. Independence Day had a 6-day IM of well over 8 in 1996, but The Amazing Spider-Man could only scrape together a 3.9 in 2012 - though it had a very healthy $35 million opening day.
Similarly, Armageddon, The Patriot and the still-reviled Wild, Wild West all achieved 5-day IMs of 5.5 or more, but today 5-day IMs of between 4 and 5 are more common, with especially front-loaded movies like Spider-Man 2 and the third Twilight movie (which, at their respective dates of release held the best ever and the second-best ever opening day records) performing well below that. Movies released around this weekend appear to be more and more front-loaded.
Also, July 4 has a noticeable downward impact on box office when it falls on a Friday or Saturday. Saturday is usually the biggest box office day for the weekend, but for the two movies released in a week when July 4 was on Saturday - Public Enemies and Armageddon - box office was lower than on Friday and Sunday. Similarly, for movies released in weeks when July 4 fell on a Friday, Friday box office was not much better than Thursday's. Those movies - Hancock, Terminator 3 and Men In Black - had particularly high IMs.
The impact is reversed when July 4 falls on a Monday, making a four-day weekend in the real world (though not on HSX). Transformers 3 and War of the Worlds both had very solid Sundays with audiences knowing they wouldn't have to go to work the next day, and IMs of just under 3. Similarly, several movies - Amazing Spider-Man, Transformers, Men In Black 2 and Independence Day - have done particularly well on July 4 when the national day falls mid-week. Perhaps this is because barbecues are on the weekend, perhaps opening day hype is still in the air.
Looking at the weekend internal multipliers - that is, the Friday to Sunday box office divided by the Friday figure - things look more predictable with an average IM of about 2.9. This average is buoyed by the high IMs of movies released in weeks where July 4 falls on a Friday (the artificially low Friday increases the IM) or on a Monday (which allows for a healthier-than-usual Sunday).
Mid-week releases can still achieve high weekend IMs - Amazing Spider-Man and Superman Returns are examples - but these were movies with big fan-bases covering both teenagers and adults, who may have been cautious about seeing a reboot. Other recent mid-week releases such as Last Airbender, Public Enemies and the third Twilight movie have fallen well short of the 2.9 average IM. Obviously, the Twilight movie's GFB audience lost interest after opening day, and the other two both suffered from poor word-of-mouth.
Unusually, most movies on this list delisted around or far above their adjust price, including several movies you would expect to be front-loaded. Only Terminator 3 delisted more than 10% below the adjust price. Even the Twilight movie delisted above adjust. This is presumably a combination of mid-week releases taking the front-loading out of the adjust price and summer legs. For traders who habitually short moviestocks after adjust and forget, it's a reminder to keep an eye on the potential delist price.
The July 4 weekend also features movies where things don't get blown up, though examples are rarer and don't fit together into neat categories. Here are the movies aimed at children:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Release Day
|
Wednesday ($M)
|
Thursday ($M)
|
Friday ($M)
|
Saturday ($M)
|
Sunday ($M)
|
Monday ($M)
|
Tuesday
($M)
|
Earth to Echo
|
02/07/2014
|
Wednesday
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
3.2
|
2.6
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Despicable Me 2
|
03/07/2013
|
Wednesday
|
35
|
24.5
|
30.5
|
29.4
|
23.7
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Ice Age 3
|
01/07/2009
|
Wednesday
|
13.8
|
11.3
|
17.2
|
11.3
|
13.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
American Girl
|
02/07/2008
|
Wednesday
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
|
02/07/2003
|
Wednesday
|
1.5
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
2.9
|
2.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Like Mike
|
03/07/2002
|
Wednesday
|
3.9
|
2.9
|
4.1
|
4.5
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Cats & Dogs 1
|
04/07/2001
|
Wednesday
|
9.0
|
5.0
|
6.7
|
8.2
|
6.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Rocky and Bullwinkle
|
30/06/2000
|
Friday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.1
|
2.5
|
2.2
|
13.0
|
10.5
|
Movie
|
Weekday Box Office ($M)
|
Weekend Box Office ($M)
|
Total Box Office ($M)
|
Days of Box Office Before
Adjust
|
Total IM (based on opening
day)
|
Weekend IM (based on Friday)
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/ Adjust Multiplier
|
Earth to Echo
|
5.2
|
8.4
|
13.6
|
5
|
5.23
|
3.16
|
3.63
|
127.9%
|
Despicable Me 2
|
59.6
|
83.5
|
143.1
|
5
|
4.09
|
2.74
|
2.96
|
107.6%
|
Ice Age 3
|
25.0
|
41.7
|
66.73
|
5
|
4.84
|
2.42
|
3.51
|
124.6%
|
American Girl
|
2.0
|
3.3
|
5.32
|
5
|
4.77
|
3.85
|
3.87
|
129.9%
|
Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas
|
3.2
|
6.9
|
10.06
|
5
|
6.60
|
3.95
|
3.21
|
109.3%
|
Like Mike
|
6.8
|
12.1
|
18.92
|
5
|
4.86
|
2.95
|
3.25
|
110.2%
|
Cats and Dogs 1
|
14.0
|
21.7
|
35.73
|
5
|
3.96
|
3.22
|
3.12
|
106.1%
|
Rocky and Bullwinkle
|
0.0
|
6.8
|
6.81
|
3
|
3.22
|
3.22
|
3.29
|
113.5%
|
Most of these movies had Wednesday releases, and only two of them - Ice Age 3 and Cats & Dogs had any real success. Both of them performed very well on weekdays (including Fridays) as you would expect now that school is out and parents need to find something else to occupy their children. Also, look at Ice Age 3's Saturday performance. July 4 happened to fall on Saturday that year, and the film suffered a big drop in box office that day as parents opted to take their children on Friday or Sunday.
If you want to predict the 5-day box office total from the opening day, a 4.8 internal multiplier (admittedly based on very few examples) looks about average these days. Also, all of these movies delisted above their adjust price, and some of them significantly above.
Here are the movies aimed (using the phrase extremely loosely) at women:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Release Day
|
Wednesday ($M)
|
Thursday ($M)
|
Friday ($M)
|
Saturday ($M)
|
Sunday ($M)
|
Monday ($M)
|
Tuesday
($M)
|
Tammy
|
02/07/2014
|
Friday
|
6.2
|
5.5
|
6.4
|
8.7
|
6.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Larry Crowne
|
01/07/2011
|
Friday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
4.1
|
4.7
|
4.3
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
Monte Carlo
|
01/07/2011
|
Friday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
3.2
|
2.4
|
1.9
|
1.1
|
0.0
|
Devil Wears Prada
|
30/06/2006
|
Friday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
9.4
|
9.3
|
8.8
|
7.0
|
5.6
|
Legally Blonde 2
|
02/07/2003
|
Wednesday
|
9.1
|
7.1
|
6.1
|
9.4
|
6.6
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Movie
|
Weekday Box Office ($M)
|
Weekend Box Office ($M)
|
Total Box Office ($M)
|
Days of Box Office Before
Adjust
|
Total IM (based on opening
day)
|
Weekend IM (based on Friday)
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/ Adjust Multiplier
|
Tammy
|
11.7
|
21.6
|
33.3
|
5
|
5.37
|
3.36
|
3.08
|
111.7%
|
Larry Crowne
|
0.0
|
13.1
|
13.10
|
3
|
3.23
|
3.23
|
2.62
|
97.1%
|
Monte Carlo
|
0.0
|
7.5
|
7.45
|
3
|
2.36
|
2.36
|
2.92
|
108.2%
|
Devil Wears Prada
|
0.0
|
27.5
|
27.54
|
3
|
2.93
|
2.93
|
3.54
|
126.5%
|
Legally Blonde 2
|
16.3
|
22.2
|
38.51
|
5
|
4.21
|
3.62
|
2.97
|
101.8%
|
None of these movies are especially alike, and only Legally Blonde 2 got a mid-week release. All had reasonably strong weekend IMs, with the exception of Monte Carlo which was aimed at teenagers who are more likely to see movies on Fridays. None of them embarrassed themselves on the delist, but it was only the Devil Wears Prada that broke out with post-adjust legs.
Finally, here are the (again, extremely loosely) comedies:
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Release Day
|
Tuesday
($M)
|
Wednesday ($M)
|
Thursday ($M)
|
Friday ($M)
|
Saturday ($M)
|
Sunday ($M)
|
Monday ($M)
|
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain
|
03/07/2013
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
4.8
|
2.6
|
3.8
|
3.7
|
2.6
|
0.0
|
Rebound
|
01/07/2005
|
Friday
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
License to Wed
|
03/07/2007
|
Tuesday
|
2.2
|
3.0
|
2.2
|
3.7
|
3.8
|
2.9
|
0.0
|
Scary Movie 2
|
04/07/2001
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
8.8
|
5.3
|
7.2
|
7.4
|
5.9
|
0.0
|
South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut
|
30/06/1999
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
4.9
|
3.4
|
4.3
|
4.2
|
2.6
|
0.0
|
Movie
|
Weekday Box Office ($M)
|
Weekend Box Office ($M)
|
Total Box Office ($M)
|
Days of Box Office Before
Adjust
|
Total IM (based on opening
day)
|
Weekend IM (based on Friday)
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/ Adjust Multiplier
|
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain
|
7.4
|
10.0
|
17.4
|
5
|
3.55
|
2.67
|
2.4
|
91.4%
|
Rebound
|
0.0
|
5.0
|
5.03
|
3
|
2.90
|
2.90
|
3.10
|
110.8%
|
License to Wed
|
7.4
|
10.4
|
17.84
|
6
|
7.96
|
2.83
|
3.29
|
114.0%
|
Scary Movie 2
|
14.0
|
20.5
|
34.52
|
5
|
3.94
|
2.86
|
2.59
|
91.5%
|
South Park: Bigger, Longer and Uncut
|
8.3
|
11.1
|
19.39
|
5
|
4.00
|
2.59
|
3.57
|
118.5%
|
All of these movies are quite different from each other and don't make particularly good comparisons. Three of them were released mid-week, with the teen-friendly South Park and Scary Movie 2 being front-loaded and the tamer comedy of License to Wed not getting off to a great start but having a stronger weekend. Only Scary Movie 2 delisted below its adjust price, so don't take post-adjust shorts for granted.
Movie
|
Release Date
|
Release Day
|
Tuesday
($M)
|
Wednesday ($M)
|
Thursday ($M)
|
Friday ($M)
|
Saturday ($M)
|
Sunday ($M)
|
Deliver Us From Evil
|
02/07/2014
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
2.9
|
2.7
|
2.5
|
4.1
|
3.1
|
America: Imagine a World Without Her
|
02/07/2014
|
Wednesday
|
0.0
|
0.7
|
0.6
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
Movie
|
Weekday Box Office ($M)
|
Weekend Box Office ($M)
|
Total Box Office ($M)
|
Days of Box Office Before
Adjust
|
Total IM (based on opening
day)
|
Weekend IM (based on Friday)
|
Delist Multiplier
|
Delist/ Adjust Multiplier
|
Deliver Us From Evil
|
5.5
|
9.7
|
15.3
|
5
|
5.26
|
3.8
|
2.54
|
95.2%
|
America: Imagine a World Without Her
|
1.3
|
2.7
|
4.1
|
5
|
6.31
|
2.7
|
4.35
|
138.7%
|
So, what have we learned about the July 4 weekend openers?
- blockbuster performance varies according to the individual movie, and the irregular opening schedule can make estimating the adjust more problematic than most weekends
- front-loading is increasingly the norm, and don't necessarily expect a huge opening day to translate into an equally-huge five-day figure. When developing your estimates from opening day box office, consider the audience and word-of-mouth
- where July 4 falls can have an impact on box office. If July 4 falls on a Friday or Saturday, expect box office to be relatively low on those days. If July 4 is a Monday, expect Sunday's box office to be strong. If it falls mid-week, July 4 is a popular movie-going day in its own right
- the movie's performance on Friday is still the key to estimating the movie's ultimate adjust on Sunday, and look out for a weekend internal multiplier of around 2.9, with potentially higher IMs if July 4 falls on a Friday or a Monday
- movies aimed at children can do well during the week with children out of school by now, though parents probably have other things planned for July 4
- do not automatically expect movies released over the July 4 period will be post-adjust shorts until delist. Plenty of movies released on this weekend delist above their adjust price - particularly movies aimed at children, but also movies that you would not expect, like blockbusters.
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