Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Chart of the Week: MALC2

We are only four months into the year, but 2015 has already seen several sequels that no one asked for.  The most successful by far is Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, which on the date of release, the movie had a 0 per cent rating at Rotten Tomatoes (though as of writing, that rating has inched up to 6%). So how is it doing after a two weekends of release?

Here is MALC2's box office to date as a % of its adjust, compared with other movies that have Kevin James as the lead (the original MALCP, ZOOKP and HCTBM), or a co-star (GRWN2) and some other movies from the Adam Sandler stable (BLEND, TMBOY and JAJIL).



The first thing to note is that some lines are bumpy, with big increases on the weekends but slow performance on the weekdays (MALCP, HCTBM and JAJIL).  Others are comparatively smooth (ZOOKP, BLEND, GRWN2 and TMBOY) with stronger weekdays.  This is probably due to the time of year the movies are in cinemas.  The four smooth movies were all released over summer, when kids are out of school which expanded the weekday audience.  MALCP, HCTBM and JAJIL were released in January, October and November respectively, so their box office was focussed on the weekend.  MALC2, an April release, is following that same bumpy trend.

The second observation is that as a group, these movies had rather strong legs. Five of them delisted above their adjust price, and the two that didn't - TMBOY with 99% and JAJIL with 95% - just fell short. So even though these movies are universally reviled - HCTBM has the highest RT score of 38%, and GRWN2 and JAJIL have scores in the single-digits - they still do well at attracting audiences beyond the opening weekend.

So far, MALC2 is tracking behind all these movies but JAJIL. Its box office earnings up to its second Tuesday of release were equivalent to 70% of its adjust price, in between HCTBM and MALCP (76% at the same point in their theatrical run) and JAJIL (64%).  If this trend continues, look for MALC2 to delist at the midpoint of around 103% of its adjust price - around $67.50.

Finally to follow up on FAST7, it delisted on Monday at $320.08, below the week 2 prediction of $327.86. Way shorter legs than MALC2.  Here's the final chart:



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