Wednesday, 13 May 2015

Chart of the week: AVNG2

After a week off due to no big movies, let's have a look at what is likely to be the biggest movie of the year - no matter how disappointed we are that it didn't have a $250 opening weekend and give us all enough cha-ching to last the rest of the summer.

Obviously, AVNG2 will be compared against other Marvel movies - in particular those that opened on the first weekend in May and delisted after the Memorial Day weekend, earning that one extra day of box office.  Here's the chart:

Up until now, AVNG2 has been following the same path as IRNM2 and IRNM3. So much so that you can barely see them under the AVNG2 line.  It's well behind the first Avengers movie, the first Iron Man movie and the first Thor movie. GOTGX is the clear winner, but that opened later in summer when kids were out of school and weekday audiences were bigger.

The Iron Man sequels delisted at 79% and 81% of their respective adjust prices, so let's split the difference say 80%. If AVNG2 continues to follow this path, it would be on track for a delist of $413.14.

While we're here, let's check in to see where MALC2 ended up.

As you can see, it utterly collapsed after its second weekend.  It dropped 60% in weekend 3 - the same weekend AVNG2 opened - but as you can see, it barely earned anything over the previous weekdays, and JAJIL had caught up to it by the third Friday.  MALC2 eventually finished with a delist of $58.19, well below the $67.50 it looked headed for after its second week.

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