Thursday, 28 May 2015

Charts of the Week: PTCP2 and MMAX4

Two movies had bigger than expected openings on the pre-Memorial Day weekend. PTCP2 had a huge $70 million opening, well above even the most optimistic predictions. MMAX4 was no slouch either, opening to $44 million, well above some of the more dire predictions made in the weeks before Mad Max hype got going. But do these movies actually have legs, or are they one week wonders?

Let's start with PTCP2. As you may have guessed, there aren't many a capella club comedies aimed at younger women to compare besides the original movie, which delisted at (more or less) the same price as its adjust. Other movies I've selected as comparisons are successful comedies aimed at younger audiences (21JS2 and NEIBR) or women (OTHRW) and dramas and fairy tale movies aimed at women (TFIOS, MALEF and CINDE).  From the chart, PTCP2 is tracking closest to CINDE at the moment, though that's probably in part due to the Memorial Day boost PTCP2 had, and maybe it will end up closer to TFIOS.

CINDE delisted at 91% of its adjust price and TFIOS delisted at 85%. To predict PTCP2's delist, let's split the difference with a little favouritism towards the TFIOS figure and predict a delist at 87% of its adjust price - $165.20 in H$ terms.

Switching over to MMAX4, the movie also got a boost from having four days in its second weekend of release, and it is currently trending ahead of AYNIK and TSSRV, which both delisted slightly above their adjust price. The movie certainly doesn't look like it's going to drop off the way other reboots/sequels like PROME, TREK2 and GODZL.  AYNIK delisted at 108.6% of its adjust price, and if MMAX4 were to do the same it would cash out at H$133.23. 

Finally, let's check in on where AVNG2 ended up. As you can't really see - because the AVNG2 line completely blocks it out - the sequel tracked IRNM3 pretty closely and delisted at H$411.87, 80% of its adjust price and slightly under the H$413 estimate made after its second weekend. It's nice to have one of these come out accurately.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Roger,

    An FYI, on the spreadsheet with midnight numbers, you have the weekend box office for Mad Max and Pitch Perfect 2 switched.