Saturday, 6 June 2015

Chart of the Week: 1952

Tomorrowland - which fell victim to the "HSX ticker symbol wasn't updated for the new movie name" curse - is a difficult movie to figure out.  If I can steal from another poster on the boards, there aren't many "humourless disappointing non-sequel original sci-fi" movies designed to appeal to families that make good comparisons.  Add in that 1952 opened on a 4-day weekend and therefore has a bigger Monday, and it makes finding the right comparisons just that little bit harder.

So, the movies I am comparing with 1952 are a mixed bag.  I have chosen DVRGN and DVRG2 (young adult sci-fi, female protagonist), NMUS2 and PRSIA (Memorial Day weekend openers, aimed at families but sequel/adaptation), EPIC (same, but animated), OZTGP (fantasy, family but non-summer) and SUPR8 (sci-fi, but aimed at boys more than girls).

Here is the chart:

As of Thursday 1952 is slightly ahead of OZTGP and well ahead of the Divergent movies, but behind the other Memorial Day openers of PRSIA, EPIC and NMUS2.

However, thanks to the column being a little late this week we can look a little further ahead by taking the Friday estimates and using the daily per cent changes from 1952's second weekend to predict what its performance will look like after its third weekend of release:

Using this method, we get a weekend estimate of $8.1 million, and we can also see that under this prediction 1952 slips very slightly behind OZTGP. So it's probably not going to catch PRSIA or NMUS2 and will likely delist around the same level as OZTGP or slightly lower.

OZTGP delisted at 93 per cent of its adjust price, but based on my projected outcome of 1952's third weekend I'm leaning towards "slightly lower", so let's go with 92%.  Applying that prediction to 1952, we get a delist estimate of $86.38.

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