Friday, 12 June 2015

Chart of the Week: SANDR

SANDR had a far huger opening weekend that anyone expected, grossing $54.6 million and proving that there's always a market for disaster movies, especially in the places that are being destroyed.  There haven't been too many disaster films in recent years - CATE6 was the most recent, but it was a box office disappointment. More successful movies like WWARZ and GODZL feature lots of destruction, but they also have a monster aspect that puts them in a separate genre. We have to go all the way back to Roland Emmerich movies to come up with examples of over-the-top disaster movies played straight, like 2012S and TOMOR.  I've also included a couple of other movies starring Dwayne Johnson - HERCL and GIJO2 - just for comparison's sake.

So far, SANDR is tracking very closely to CATE6, which delisted at 91% of its adjust price - or 90%, if you take out its extra day of box office. That would suggest an eventual delist of $132.68, but I expect SANDR will see a bigger drop this weekend due to the opening of JURA4 given the sizeable overlap in audience.  This would mean its chart might end up looking more like HERCL and 2012S, which both delisted at 85% of their adjust prices.  Applying this calculation to SANDR yields a delist prediction of $125.30.  I don't want to be the guy who says "Toldja it would delist between $125 and 133 - nailed it!", so I'll go with the lower prediction.

Also, let's check in on the recent delists.  Here is the chart for PTCP2, which had a slightly weaker-than-expected performance after its second week and ended up delisting at 160.85 - 86% of its adjust price and under my estimate of $165.20.

MMAX4 delisted at $130.67 - 107% of its adjust price, and under the Week 2 estimate of $133.23.  I'll make a note to reduce all future delist estimates by 1 per cent.

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