Friday, 19 June 2015

Chart of the Week: SCOPR

Given the past performance of Melissa McCarthy movies and the overwhelmingly positive reviews, SCOPR underperformed with its opening weekend take of $29.1 million. But is word of mouth giving the movie legs, or is it continuing to underperform?

Here is the chart for SCOPR's box office to date, compared with other Melissa McCarthy movies - TAMMY, THEAT, IDTHF and BRDSM - as well as BDTCH (summer comedy aimed at adult women), LBCOP (same, but for younger man) and the reviled MALC2.

As of SCOPR's second Wednesday, it has earned 79% per cent of its adjust price, well behind IDTHF (84%), THEAT (91%) and even TAMMY (89%). Don't even think of comparing it against BRDSM. So far, its performance looks a lot closer to BDTCH, which delisted at 104% of its adjust price. If SCOPR continues on the same path, it will delist at H$81.67.

However, I'm going to experiment with something new this week, by seeing what happens if we apply the day-to-day percentage change so far to plot SCOPR's future adjust. So, we look at the box office of SCOPR's first Thursday compared against its first Wednesday, and apply that number to SCOPR's second Wednesday to estimate its second Thursday, and then do similar for the second Friday, the second Saturday and so on until SCOPR is due to delist.  Here's the result:

This calculation suggests a higher delist, at 108% of the adjust price or around $84.81.  Personally, I lean towards the lower delist of $81.67 because day-to-day patterns do change in later weeks as movies lose screens and audiences lose interest. But we'll test this out for the next few weeks and see if it provides better delist estimates than the comparison method.

Finally, it's time to check in on 1952, which delisted at $83.68 (89% of the adjust price) and lower than my estimate of 92% of the adjust / H$86.38 (though it would have been 100% accurate with a simple transposition). Pretty terrible legs for a family movie. Here's the chart:

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