Thursday, 25 June 2015

Chart of the Week: JURA4

This is the one we've been waiting for: JURA4.  Not content with being the biggest opener of all time, JURA4 has ignored the "sequels open bigger and have shorter legs" rule with strong weekdays and a 49 per cent drop in its second weekend.  There's no doubt that JURA4 is defying the odds, but how does it compare against other mega-openers?

The chart below compares JURA4 against the last two Jurassic Park movies, the last two Batman movies (currently #6 and #7 all time), both Avengers movies (before JURA4, the two biggest openers ever) and Guardians of the Galaxy (which opened a lot lower, but turned out to be *the* movie to see last summer).

As you can see, JURA4 is tracking well ahead of the other Jurassic sequels and is following a similar pattern as the two best performers - BATM2 and GOTGX - which delisted at 100% and 99% of adjust price respectively.  Let's keep it simple and estimate that JURA4 will delist at its adjust price exactly, $563.78.  Also, a reminder that the "adjust" in this column is calculated using the moviestock's actual weekend numbers ($208,806,270) rather then the weekend estimate of $204,596,000)

Let's look forward to the delist using that method outlined in last week's SCOPR column.  If JURA4 has the same daily changes in future as it has had over the past week, it will continues to track BATM2 pretty closely, and will end even with GOTGX at 99% of the adjust price - $558.14. Not much different really, but since I should make a prediction I'll go with the higher one.

SANDR delisted this week at $132.70, ahead of my pessimistic prediction that it would track closer to HERCL for a  $125.30 delist. In fact, despite the huge opening and strong legs shown by JURA4, SANDR continued to track closely to CATE6 and delisted almost exactly at that path's prediction of $132.68.  So maybe competition - even against a similar genre movie that also happens to be the biggest opener ever - doesn't matter that much?  Anyway, here's the chart.

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