Wednesday, 1 July 2015

Chart of the Week: NMIND

Non-sequel Pixar films have typically opened in the $60-$70 million range, but NMIND exceeded expectations with a massive $90 million opening weekend, the second-best ever after Toy Story 3.  So is NMIND acting like other Pixar films, or is it continuing to break the mould?

The chart compares NMIND's performance against other Pixar movies. As of its second Tuesday, NMIND had earned box office equivalent to 82% of its adjust price - slightly above long-legged movies like BRAVE and UP, slightly below the less-legged MONS2 and equivalent to TOYS3.

If NMIND continues to track TOYS3, it will delist at 114% of its adjust price or $278.38.  That seems to be the midpoint of expectations.  Looking at the worst-case scenario, which would see NMIND run out of steam and follow a MONS2's path, it will delist at 107% of its adjust price, or $261.28.  And at the higher-end of expectations, if NMIND were to remain ahead of UP's trajectory it would delist somewhere north of $300.

Judgment call time. I don't see NMIND following the MONS2 route, given that it's a non-sequel and has superlative reviews.  However, the UP scenario isn't compelling either. UP came out in late May, before school holidays in many states had started.  This would explain why it is lagging NMIND (and other Pixar films) for now, but has a surge in the third and fourth weeks of release.  This is not a factor for NMIND, given its late June release date. I lean towards the TOYS3 scenario, so $278.38 is my final guess.

Let's see what happens if we extrapolate NMIND's future performance from its past daily percentage changes:
Under this model, NMIND surges ahead of TOYS3 in its third weekend, but doesn't quite catch UP.  This projection predicts a delist of 119% of the adjust price, or $290.48.

Finally let's check in on where SCOPR ended up. It delisted at $88.46, 113% of its adjust price and well ahead of the $81.67 predicted after its second Thursday, and also the $84.81 that was projected its the daily change. Here's the chart:

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