Friday, 10 July 2015

Chart of the Week: TED2

Ted 2 fell foul of lazy sequel prediction.  When it opened less than two weeks ago, no one was saying anything less than a high-forties opening. But the reality turned out to be low-30s.  Nevertheless, summer releases typically have strong legs, with June and July releases - on average - delisting above their adjust price.  So is TED2 able to play catch-up, or is it still an unwanted sequel?

Here's the comparison of box office up to the second Wednesday of release. So far, TED2 has earned 71% of its adjust price at the box office, trailing the original movie (91%). It's also trailing well-received movies like WSEND (80%), 21JS2 (79%) and NEIBR (74%).  More disturbingly, it's also training terrible movies like TMBOY (86%) and MWTDW (73%). The only one it is ahead of is DUMB3 (64%), another sequel that nobody asked for that is also a non-summer movie.

 The two closest tracks seem to be NEIBR and MWTDW, but after a 66.7% drop in its second weekend I don't see TED2 having a strong third weekend like NEIBR did. I expect it will delist a couple of points below MWTDW's 89%.  Let's say 86%, which estimates a delist of H$77.80.

I'm not sure that anyone cares about TED2's delist - at least, compared to JURA4 - but if we use its daily change history to predict its future box office, we actually end up with a delist at 90% of the adjust price, or H$81.80.

JURA4 ended up delisting at $556.54, equivalent to 99% of its adjust price (when using actual #s rather than Sunday estimates). This was slightly below the second-week estimate of $563.78, and very close to the projection of $558.14 using the daily change history prediction method.

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