Friday, 17 July 2015

Chart of the Week: MGCM2 and TERM5

MGCM2 and TERM5 both underwhelmed over the July 4 weekend. Two sequels with lower-than-expected opening weekends should be pretty straightforward for the Chart of the Week, right?

Well, it turns out that I can't phone in a column that says "sequels have terrible legs", because look at the chart for MGCM2. As of its second Wednesday MGCM2 had grossed 106% of its adjust price - well ahead of comparable movies such as MGCMK, SEXCT and SATC2, and even long-legged comedies aimed at women like OTHRW and THEAT.  Part of the reason is due to the combination of a Wednesday (well, Tuesday night) opening and the July 4 weekend, which made for a low weekend and a high "box office to date as a % of the adjust" calculation.  The also movie held very well in its second weekend, and if it were to keep up the same pattern of daily change (chart not included) would delist at 132% of its adjust price, or around H$65.67.

However, I'm not convinced that MGCM2's legs will be as strong as THEAT in its third and fourth weekends, so I am guesstimating a lower delist of around 125% of the adjust, or H$62.19.

TERM5 is behaving more predictably, having earned 76% of its adjust price by its second Wednesday.  This puts is above its predecessors TERM3 and TERM4, and on a path somewhere in between TFRM3 (note the F) and PACRM, which delisted at 95% and 94% of their respective adjust prices.  Splitting the difference at 93% of an adjust, we get a predicted delist of H$82.22.  However, if we use past daily changes to predict the delist (again, chart not shown), we get a slightly higher prediction of 95% of the adjust price or H$83.99.

NMIND delisted on Monday at H$284.20, putting it about midway between my prediction of H$278.38 and the prediction extrapolated from performance to date of $H$290.48. It did better than the average Pixar movie, beating TOYS3 and BRAVE among others, but did not reach the heights of RATUL and UP. Here's the chart:

1 comment:

  1. hey dude. miss you on the hsx boards