Thursday, 23 July 2015

Chart of the Week: MNION

Taking $115.7 million, MNION had the summer's third-biggest opening weekend, and the biggest animated opening, eclipsing NMIND's $90.4 million. So far this summer we've seen big openers such as JURA4, NMIND and PTCP2 go on to have long legs, but is the same true of MNION?

As of MNION's second Tuesday of release, it has earned 73% of its adjust price.  This isn't so good compared with other movies such as the other Despicable Me films or Pixar/Ice Age Sequels.  It's between ICEA$ (76%, delisting at 105%) and ahead of CARS2 (71%, delisting at 93%).  Assuming MNION continues to perform in between these two films, it seems headed for a delist of around its adjust (based on actual box office) of $312.44.

However, if we project MNION's future performance from its daily percentage change, the outlook is even less rosy. Under this projection MNION will fall behind ICEA4 and even below CARS2 for a delist of 91% of its adjust price, or H$284.32.

Finally, TED2 ended up delisting at H$77.36 or 86% of its adjust price.  This was far lower than the original movie (123%) but also behind every other summer movie in the comparison, even MWTDW. It was also very close to the week 2 prediction of $77.80, but lower than the prediction based on daily change of H$87.80 or 90% of the adjust price. Here's the chart.

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