Thursday, 30 July 2015

Charts of the Week: ANTMN and TRWRC

Despite their boosters and doubters, TRWRC and ANTMN proved to have fairly predictable opening weekends that were solid but not particular break-outs.  Let's see how they have been doing since then.

As of its second Tuesday of release, ANTMN had earned 73.7% of its adjust price.  This is almost on par with GOTGX (74%) and ahead of other Marvel films including the only other late summer release in the sample, CAPAM (70.9%).  If ANTMN continues on the same track as GOTGX, it should delist a touch below its adjust price - let's say 99%, of H$152.97.

I won't reproduce the chart here (too many this week), but if we project ANTMN's box office based on daily change, we get a lower delist estimate of 95.2% (or  H$147.09).

After a $30 million opening weekend, TRWRC was touted as having potential for BRDSM-style legs.  Earing 81.4% of its adjust price as of its second Tuesday in release, it has fallen well behind BRDSM (90.9%) - and also THEAT (87.7%) and TED (87.9%) - but is still doing respectably, and is running even with IDTHF and ahead of other comparables like SCOPR, OTHRW and BDTCH.  It should end up doing better than IDTHF - a non-summer movie with poor weekday earnings - which delisted at 115.2% of its adjust price so I'm going to predict a delist of around 117% or H$95.07.

The "projection based on past daily change" yields a lower prediction of 112.8% of the adjust price or $91.66

Earlier this week, TERM5 delisted at $85.68, 96.9% of its adjust price but ahead of the prediction of H$82.22 (93%).  This prediction was the result of a faulty formula in the spreadsheet (ooops!) but it probably turned out better than the prediction I would have made using the correct calculation. Here's the (corrected) chart.

MGCM2 ended up delisting at H$63.14, 126.9% of its adjust price and close to the stab-in-the-dark prediction of 125% (H$62.19). Here's the chart:

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