Thursday, 13 August 2015

Chart of the Week: MISS5

MISS5 had a decent opening weekend of $55.5 million, overcoming a few doubts in the weeks leading up to release. Fifth movies in a franchise are not known for their legs, but an older fan-base, an A- Cinemascore and maybe the best reviews of the series are all positive signs.  How have things worked out so far?

Obviously MISS5 was never expected to reach the post-adjust heights of MISS4, which opened over Christmas and also at the nadir of Cruise's popularity.  As of its second Tuesday, MISS5 has earned 77.1% of its adjust price, which is well above than the other (non-MISS4) movies in the franchise, better than (the non-summer) JB23 and slightly below AYNIK, another movie that audiences had to convince themselves to see despite Tom Cruise.  If MISS5 continues along this trend, it will delist at around 107% of its adjust price, or H$160.39.

And if we use the past daily change to predict future performance, we get a similar result of 106.7% of the adjust price, or H$159.94.

Let's check out the movies that have delisted since the last column.

MNION ended up delisting at H$287.58, a disappointing 92% of the adjust price - lower than every other comparison, even CARS2 at 92.6%.  This was some way below my prediction of $312.44 and much closer to the prediction based on daily percentage changes of $H284.32.

ANTMN did pretty well for a comic-book release, having slightly lower legs than last August's GOTGX and ahead of all the other Marvel movies.  The delist price of H$147.52 (95.5% of the adjust price) was slightly below my prediction of H$152.97 and extremely close to the prediction based on daily percentage changes of H$147.09.

TRWRC delisted at H$90.95, or 111.9% of its adjust price.  This put it around the same pace as SCOPR and ahead of movies like BDTCH and OTHRW, but well behind THEAT, BRDSM and even a non-summer movie like IDTHF.  Still, the obvious pattern is that comedies aimed at women over 25 tend to delist above their adjust price.

Compared to the HSXsanity predictions, my prediction of a H$95.07 was too optimistic and the daily percentage change prediction of H$91.66 was closer.

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