Thursday, 20 August 2015

Chart of the Week: FANT4 and WERDO

Box office observers were all prepped for a disappointing opening weekend from FANT4, but the movie still managed to throw under those low expectations.  Let's see how it has performed since, with comparisons against some other comic-book adaptation misfires.

As of its second Tuesday of release, FANT4 had earned 64% of its adjust price - just below GLANT (64.9% of adjust, delisted at 76.4%) but above FOUR2 (62.8%, delisted at 76.2%)  and SPID5 (61.5%, delisted at 74.8%).  Given its second weekend drop of 68.2%, I don't see FANT4 straying from this path, so I'll estimate it will delist at around 76% of its adjust price, or $52.71.

If we project FANT4's future performance based on its daily change to date, we get a similar prediction of a delist at 75.5% of the adjust price, or $52.36.

It seems like every week I'm comparing big budget comic book movies, so let's have a look at something different for a change.  WERDO is a low-budget thriller from a new distributor which on paper could easily have been a TV movie of the week.  But riding strong reviews and catering to a section of the audience that wanted to see something different, it beat expectations on opening weekend.

As of its second Tuesday in release, WERDO had earned 79.2% of its adjust price - a strong performance against comparisons such as PRSNS and TCALL, but not quite as strong as GONEG.  WERDO looks set to earn more than its adjust price, and I am going to estimate an eventual delist around the midpoint between the GONEG line and the PRSNS/TCALL lines. Let's say 108% of the adjust price, or H$34.57.

The projection based on past daily change has a slightly lower prediction of 107.5% of the adjust, or H$34.41.

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