Thursday, 27 August 2015

Chart of the Week - SOCMP

Historically, hip-hop movies don't have great legs.  8MILE, which had a similar break-out $50M+ opening weekend, delisted at 72.3% of its adjust price. NOBIG managed 70.4%, GRODT ended up with 75.8%.  But expectations for SOCMP were different, given its cross-generational appeal and enthusiasm to see the N.W.A. story. How is SOCMP holding up?

As of its second Tuesday in release, SOCMP had earned 71.9% of its adjust price. (Note: this column calculates the adjust price using the actual box office rather than the Sunday estimates.  SOCMP was significantly underestimated, so the adjust price used here of $162.54 is greater than SOCMP's HSX adjust of $151.45)  This is far ahead of 8MILE (58.5%), NOBIG (63.5% and GRODT (64.3%).  It's also ahead of HUSTL (68.8%, delisted at 92%) and slightly behind RDLON (73.3%, delisted at 95.4%).  If SOCMP continues on this trend, it would delist at around 94.3% of its adjust price, or $153.28.


However, when we project SOMCP's future performance based on its past daily change, we get a less optimistic delist estimate of 86.8% of the adjust price, or $141.08.  Of the two predictions, I find this one the more plausible - SOCMP had a 56% drop in its second weekend, behind HUSTL (49.7% drop in its second, 37.7% in its third) and RDLON (48.7% in its second weekend, 43.5% in its third), and also behind last week's expectations.  Still, it will probably have a smaller third weekend drop than last weekend's 56% and if I was making a personal prediction, I would move that line up a little.



Also, MISS5 cashed out on Monday at $157.51 or 105.1% of its adjust price, slightly under the prediction of $160.39 (107%) and the daily change projection of $159.94 (106.7%).  Here's the chart.


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